Xaiv's baseball post

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Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Wed Jul 10, 2013 1:41 pm

So instead of hijacking the post in Cap's ale house, i figured we can start a new thread here for those interested. Ill answer your post here Arlos.

Arlos wrote:Great read, Xaiv.

So is there any fix for his issue? Would shutting him down for a year while he works on a bunch of stretching and strength training targeted at taking care of that weak area in his back do it?

Oh, and why do you think Brian Wilson hasn't ended up anywhere? Is he done after that Tommy John surgery? Or is it more of a case of teams not wanting to deal with his, uh, eccentricities? (I think those made him MORE popular here, not less, actually)

Since I'm sure you've seen it, what did you think of the Ken Burns uber-documentary on Baseball? Finally been watching that myself, and even though I'm far from a baseball fanatic, been interesting hearing about a lot of the stuff from the early early days (1900-1920s, etc)

Lastly, do you have an opinion on the whole Oakland stadium saga, and the lawsuit they just filed? Seems to me the Giants are being assholes about it, since the only reason they have any claim to the San Jose rights is because Oakland gave their OK for SF to potentially move there at one point. It's obvious Selig's "blue ribbon" commission never intended to actually do anything about it, given that it's been something like 3+ years since they first met. Thoughts?

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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Wed Jul 10, 2013 2:21 pm

As far as "fixing" Lincecum, there really isnt an easy way to do that.

The obvious fix is with mechanics, and altering how Tim throws. The problem with that is from the time Tim was at University of Washington to the time he was drafted to now, he has been VERY clear that changing his mechanics was not going to happen. So that is pretty much out, with the exception of small tweaks.

Shutting him down is absolutely not an option for a couple of reasons.

1) Tim is coming up on free agency. By not signing an extension and now not delivering good pitching performances he has cost himself millions of dollars (also apparently saving the Giants millions). By not pitching, it will further lower the amount of money he would get from free agency.

2) The players union would be pissed, and would never allow it to happen without a medical reason (as per MLB rules). Unless there is a clear injury (which there is not) the Giants would not be able to remove Lincecum from the 25 man roster (at the mlb level) or the 40 man roster. To be removed from those rosters you have to be either put on the 15 day DL (25 man) or 60 day DL (both 25 and 60 man) to clear up space. Because there is no "injury" he can NOT be put on the Disabled list (DL). So to clear space he would have to be "waived" which would never happen (exposes player to waiver wire, can be claimed by other teams).

3) Tim would have to agree and actively pursue those exercises. He had all last off season to do it, and the 1 before and didnt do it on his own accord (again costing him between 8-12 million dollars a year). Why would he do that now?


As for Brian Wilson. He is currently in Hawaii (i think) still rehabbing on his arm. He is slated to start throwing for teams after the all star break (he is a free agent, so he could sign with anyone) or in early August. He may be back in the majors by September. As for his antics, that has zero reason why he hasn't been picked up yet. He just isnt ready to pitch yet, and until he is no team will sign him as all major league contracts are guaranteed. No team will waste money until they are 100% sure he is back.

Ken Burn's baseball documentary's are some of my absolute favorite things to watch period. You do not even have to be a baseball fan to enjoy them. Some of the personal stories that players tell (especially the Negro league players) is amazing. What they went through and were subjected to, but still able to play the game with a kid like glee. Some of the stories about the advent of free agency (Curt Flood) is extremely interesting. I wish he would have delved a little more into the "Steroid era" or maybe highlighted more players like Ken Griffey Jr. that were clean during that time, and the numbers they put up against juiced competition.

Speaking of Juiced competition, if you want a good documentary and you have netflicks watch 'Up for Grabs". Its a film about Barry Bonds 73rd homerun ball.

more coming shortly
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Arlos » Wed Jul 10, 2013 3:57 pm

Oh, I figured that doing anything like shutting him down for a year would have to be with his complete agreement. If it was something HE wanted to do, would the MLBPA bitch about it? After all, like you said, having the issue is costing him millions a year. Would only seem to make sense to do everything possible to fix the problem, if only for where his own personal income is concerned. Leaving aside what he means for the Giants, you'd think he'd be up for it just so he can get those millions back. As it is, I would guess he's destined for a permanent bullpen position. Hell, maybe he goes the Dennis Eckersley route, and morphs from being a starter to a full-time closer. I can only imagine his back issue would be significantly ameliorated if he's only pitching 1 inning every few days. You think that's a potential option for him?

The Baseball documentary has been fascinating. I think I like his Civil War one better, but that may be just because that's a subject I'm generally more interested in. So far I'm up to the 1940s, so obviously that episode was largely about Jackie Robinson coming into the league. I'm actually kinda surprised Branch Rickey isn't more prominently remembered in the general public for his role. I mean, I had always heard of Jackie Robinson growing up, but never heard or Rickey. I agree too about some of the negro league stories. You just have to wonder what, say, Satchel Paige would have done if the league had been integrated back in the 20s.

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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Reynaldo » Thu Jul 11, 2013 7:23 am

More importantly, WTF is wrong with Cain?

Someone had dropped him in my league so i picked up him for what I thought would be an easy home start vs. the Mets and boom, shelled again.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:42 am

Reynaldo wrote:More importantly, WTF is wrong with Cain?

Someone had dropped him in my league so i picked up him for what I thought would be an easy home start vs. the Mets and boom, shelled again.



Cain has always been an extreme fly ball pitcher that was able to post lower HR/Flyball rates than league average. This year is completely opposite, and is giving up a much higher than league average HR/flyball rate.

From watching Cain, it looks like his hips weren't opening enough in Spring Training (no idea why) and he has shifted from the extreme third base side of the rubber (last few years) to now pitching closer to neutral on the rubber. While Cain has always had great stuff, he has relied on pitching up in the zone to batters to get them out. Thats why he gets a large number of fly ball outs. Pitching that way is dangerous, and his window is just an extreme small portion of the zone, and his pitches just aren't getting there this year.

The move on the rubber could be some underlying issue with him, as most established pitchers are not going to change where they stand on the mound to deliver their pitches. It completely changes how they pitch. With him doing so there is an issue even though his strike %, walk/strikeout ratio etc are all right around career norms. The other part of it (something that he shares with Lincecum) is the Giants defense is just not very good in that big park. His numbers are slightly inflated because of that.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:44 am

As it pertains to Fantasy baseball, unless you are desperate i would drop Cain. If you have to keep him, NEVER EVER start him in places like Cincinnati, Denver or Chicago (extreme HR parks). You will get burned on that. Only start him in San Fran and other parks that supress HR numbers.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Fri Jul 12, 2013 9:58 am

Arlos wrote:
Lastly, do you have an opinion on the whole Oakland stadium saga, and the lawsuit they just filed? Seems to me the Giants are being assholes about it, since the only reason they have any claim to the San Jose rights is because Oakland gave their OK for SF to potentially move there at one point. It's obvious Selig's "blue ribbon" commission never intended to actually do anything about it, given that it's been something like 3+ years since they first met. Thoughts?

-Arlos



I never did get to this. This is kind of a weird topic for me, because i am torn on it. I grew up a BIG Giants fan, and hated the A's (i was/is a Mariners fan). Will Clark was my favorite player, and i was giddy as a school girl when they signed Bonds for the '93 season. Ironically enough i work for the Dodgers now being the Giants biggest rival, and i was in the A's organization when i played my minor league ball.

I see both sides to the argument here. When the rights to San Jose where given to the Giants (by the A's) it was originally suppose to be a fall back plan if they couldnt get a stadium deal done in San Fran. At that time, San Jose was not a great market for baseball. San Fran established their minor league team there, and they have quite a bit of a fan base down there now. It turned a large portion of those people on to the Giants, because you could watch teh kids play there and then make their way to the show in SF. So those fans are a majority of SF fans, and with the A's moving there the Giants will take a HUGE hit as far as money goes.

For the A's there really isnt any place for them to go if San Jose doesnt go their way, which it wont anytime soon. Selig has pretty much washed his hands of it, he will not push for anything as he is retiring shortly. So its one of those "leave it for the next guy to do". Selig doesnt want any sort of decision like that on his resume.

The A's can feel a little slighted by the Giants because those territorial rights were pretty much given to them for free by the A's. The A's at the time were in negotiations for a new stadium and if the Giants moved out their fan base would expand dramatically in the area. Obviously it didnt work out that way, and now the rights that the Giants own are worth far more than when the A's owned them.

Are the Giants being dicks? Eh not really from a business standpoint. If someone gave you a shell of a 1967 shelby fastback because they didnt need it, and were never going to do anything with it. Then you took it, rebuilt it from the ground up and now you have a show car thats worth a TON of money. Would you just give that back to that person because now they wanted it back or sell it to them for a fraction of the perceived value of it? Not a perfect analogy but you i think it conveys the point.

There will be a deal met at some point, there has to be. But the A's are going to pay through the nose to do it. But it wont be in the next 2 years.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Reynaldo » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:06 am

I have good pitchers (I think?) but i'm pretty far down the chain in my total pitching stats in my league.

My starters are....

C. Lee
B. Colon
Y. Darvish
M. Garza
J. Lackey

with J. Cueto on the DL.

I traded for Darvish midway through the first half and his starts after I got him have been below average at best, same with Lee, just added him recently and he's been a mess. Colon has sat on the waiver wire all season because the talking heads say there's simply no way his era/whip stay low since he basically is just relying on spotting his fastball, but every start since I've had him he goes at least 7 and gives up 5 hits and 1 or 2 runs. Hardly any K's though.

I've been trying to acquire Wainwright all year but the guy who has him won't part with him for anything, and I don't blame him lol.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:13 am

What are the pitching stats that you guys are using?

What is the league format? Is it head to head where you take a weeks worth of stats and get a point if you lead the category, or season long counting where you are getting points and move up and down rankings based on that?
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Reynaldo » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:18 am

season long totals. I'm in 1st because I have a sick hitting lineup, but i've been coming closer to the pack due to bad pitching stats.

Wins
Saves
ERA
WHIP
K's

To be fair though, alot of my pitching woes have come because of bad decisions. For instance, I picked up Halliday vs. the Marlins way back when since the Marlins are usually a slam dunk for huge pitching stats and a win, but he gives up 8 runs in 1.2 innings or some such.

Several outings like that really pummel you
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:19 am

And Colon should regress a bit, but not all that much. He is outperforming his FiP (2.69 ERA to 3.32 FiP) but not drastically so. His HR/FB rate is VERY low at 6.1, so expect him to give up a few more dingers from here on out. But that is not entirely bad because his BaBIP is not far below the league average and his walk rate is down. Nothing to cause to much concern. His strand rate is pretty high for him at over 80% so that will fall back just a little bit.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Fri Jul 12, 2013 10:22 am

How deep of a league is it? 8, 10, 12 team league? Your pitching staff isnt horrible but K's are an issues but unless its a shallow league you may have to look at other options in the bullpen or make some switches for higher strikeout guys and sac a little era/whip.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Arlos » Sun Jul 14, 2013 1:40 am

Aaaaand Lincecum throws the first no-hitter of his career...

148 pitches? Ye gods.

According to ESPN, he just matched the record of swings and misses in a no-hitter since 2000. 13 strikeouts, and only 6 pitchers have EVER had more strikeouts in a no-hitter than this one.

How unexpected is THAT?

Thoughts, Xaiv?

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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Xaiveir » Mon Jul 15, 2013 1:16 pm

I was actually shocked by the news of his no hitter. Way to go Timmy! Talk about right on que, perhaps we should bad mouth him a little more. That will fix him!

I have not yet had a chance to review the game. I will here in the next day or so look at pitch F/X and batted ball profile, and ill break down how it happened.
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Jay » Wed May 21, 2014 11:22 am

Why do the Marlins always wreck the Giants?
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby brinstar » Wed Jun 25, 2014 5:04 pm

Xaiveir wrote:Way to go Timmy!


x2

probably not as masterful as Kershaw's last week but damn
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Arlos » Thu Jul 24, 2014 12:34 pm

Just read an article on Lincecum I thought was pretty good:

http://grantland.com/features/tim-lince ... co-giants/
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Re: Xaiv's baseball post

Postby Jay » Thu Jul 24, 2014 2:22 pm

Why is Mike Trout such a monster?
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