NFL 2013

[Reynaldo]

Chiefs trading a 2nd rounder and 3rd next year (potentially 2nd) for Alex freaking Smith??

You're welcome Arlos, you bent us over on that one.....

[Jay]

Take him and fuckin keep him. Lets see how much Alex Smith further destroys your franchise.

[Arlos]

Hey, he's better than any other option out there for you guys. Also, is it REALLY bending you over when you look at other recent deals for starting QBs? Oakland gave up a FIRST and a 2nd for Carson Palmer, who was 31 at the time. (Smith is 29) You really think Palmer is enough better than Smith to warrant jumping from an early 2nd to an early 1st? Arizona gave up a high 2nd AND a high end starting CB for fucking Kevin Kolb. Smith is CERTAINLY better than Kolb. At least he doesn't turn it over much at all, which will be a HUGE upgrade for you guys, considering how bad Cassel was at turning it over.

So, while it is more than I thought we'd get, as I figured 1 2nd, not 2, I don't think it's out of line compared to what recent deals have shown to be market price for QBs.

Now, with this trade, the 49ers have more picks than anyone else in the draft, including the #31 and 34 picks. Wonder if they'll look at trading up into the early part of the 1st round, to get one of the top-rated talents at DB or DL, which are their two biggest needs. Considering they just went to the SB and the NFC Championship game in the last 2 years, the 49ers don't NEED that many new players. Trading up seems like a definite option.

-Arlos

[Arlos]

Additional thought: Given how bad the Jets need multiple draft picks to fix their broken team, and how bad the 49ers could use a top-end CB, could we potentially see the 49ers trade some of their glut of picks for Revis?

-Arlos

[Reynaldo]

I'll agree he is the best "veteran" QB available in the market but the bottom line is the 49ers would cut him if there were no trade suitors. They had no leverage and still got what's essentially a 1st round pick this year and probably a pretty high 2nd in next year's draft.

Don't get me wrong at all. Smith is a definite upgrade to Cassel / Quinn and I'm happy to have him in Reid's offense, but at the very most I was hoping it was going to be JUST our 3rd this year. With what we're giving up I would have much rather just rolled the dice with Geno at #1 overall and still had our 2nd round pick for a CB or WR.

Now we're basically locked into letting Albert walk and taking Joeckel at #1, then hoping for the best with our 3rd and compensatory 3rd.

[Reynaldo]

Additional thought: Given how bad the Jets need multiple draft picks to fix their broken team, and how bad the 49ers could use a top-end CB, could we potentially see the 49ers trade some of their glut of picks for Revis?

-Arlos

For whatever reason, I'm completely fascinated with the Revis situation.

My personal opinion is that he's a cancer to a team demanding to be paid 15 mil a year and holding out every other year to be top dog again.

It's kind of the same situation as Alex Smith (aside from Revis being one of the top 3 at his position). He has a cap number the team wants to dump, and 1 year left on the deal, so whoever gets him is going to tie up a LOT of money THIS year and then have him want huge a huge money / long term deal since he'll be 28+ going forward. They're obviously not going to give him up for nothing but I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded for a 3rd or 4th round pick even though his value would probably dictate a 1st or multiple high rounders.

With Brady freeing up some cap space, I could see the Pats letting Talib walk and bringing in Revis.

The Buccaneers have the biggest need AND the most cap space though, so I'd see him going there over anyplace else.

[Arlos]

Additional thought: Given how bad the Jets need multiple draft picks to fix their broken team, and how bad the 49ers could use a top-end CB, could we potentially see the 49ers trade some of their glut of picks for Revis?

-Arlos

For whatever reason, I'm completely fascinated with the Revis situation.

My personal opinion is that he's a cancer to a team demanding to be paid 15 mil a year and holding out every other year to be top dog again.

It's kind of the same situation as Alex Smith (aside from Revis being one of the top 3 at his position). He has a cap number the team wants to dump, and 1 year left on the deal, so whoever gets him is going to tie up a LOT of money THIS year and then have him want huge a huge money / long term deal since he'll be 28+ going forward. They're obviously not going to give him up for nothing but I wouldn't be surprised to see him traded for a 3rd or 4th round pick even though his value would probably dictate a 1st or multiple high rounders.

With Brady freeing up some cap space, I could see the Pats letting Talib walk and bringing in Revis.

The Buccaneers have the biggest need AND the most cap space though, so I'd see him going there over anyplace else.

The cap space hit would be the biggest reason for the 49ers to not bring him in, since they have to re-sign Delanie Walker and Dashon Goldson, plus one of Isaac Sopuaga or Ricky Jean Francois. That said, he is *EXACTLY* what they need back there, and I'd think that with some re-structuring of people's contracts, they could fit him.

Now, the cancer thing is definitely a concern. Not sure he's the kind of player Harbaugh would want. Then again, how much of his apparent issues come from being a part of the Grand High Kings of dysfunction, the Jets? I wonder if he'd have the same tendencies if he was playing for a stable team with established leadership. If the team can get Randy Moss of all people to behave as an exemplary citizen (which by all accounts he was last year), would Revis really be a problem child here? I mean, look how quickly and completely the 49ers kicked Brandon Jacobs to the curb when he mouthed off. So, if ANY team could bring in Revis and get him to toe the line, it's the 49ers and Harbaugh.

So yeah, if he can mesh his personality here, I'd love to have Revis. Alternately, I'd love to see if we can trade up into one of the top 5-10 picks and grab one of the top DL in the draft to be the heir apparent for Justin Smith, or maybe one of the top CBs, instead of taking the chances with Revis.

-Arlos

[Arlos]

I'll agree he is the best "veteran" QB available in the market but the bottom line is the 49ers would cut him if there were no trade suitors. They had no leverage and still got what's essentially a 1st round pick this year and probably a pretty high 2nd in next year's draft.

Don't get me wrong at all. Smith is a definite upgrade to Cassel / Quinn and I'm happy to have him in Reid's offense, but at the very most I was hoping it was going to be JUST our 3rd this year. With what we're giving up I would have much rather just rolled the dice with Geno at #1 overall and still had our 2nd round pick for a CB or WR.

Now we're basically locked into letting Albert walk and taking Joeckel at #1, then hoping for the best with our 3rd and compensatory 3rd.

There were several other teams interested in Smith, so there was basically no chance they'd just let him walk. Even if it meant taking a deal from the Cardinals.

Smith should be a good fit for you guys. Your OL isn't bad, good running game, couple good targets (assuming you franchise that WR, or just re-sign him), and since Reid runs a west coast offense, that should work out well. Smith's smart, accurate, and doesn't make bad decisions, which is exactly what you need for a west coast system. Yeah, his arm strength lacks, but you guys wouldn't be bombing it downfield with that offense even if you had Jeff George in there.

Rather than let your current LT walk, maybe you guys could re-sign him, then deal away the first overall for a big haul of new picks? First overall is worth a couple mid-range 1st rounders at least, generally. Wouldn't surprise me to see you guys do that.

-Arlos

[Reynaldo]

That's the problem this year is the talent level in the draft is thought of as being insanely deep with no can't-miss guys. So the #1 overall doesn't have much value unless a team gets a hard on for a guy on draft day (Browns and Geno Smith maybe).

Only thing I could see them doing is just trickling back in the 1st. Like drop to 10 and pick up a 5th, then drop to 15 from there and pick up a 5th etc, THEN try to use a few picks to get back into the 2nd after using your #1 finally in the 20s.

Browns did that a few years ago when they traded away the Sanchez pick to the Jets and worked out pretty well.

[Lyion]

Carson Palmer is a much better QB than Alex Smith. If you take Palmer off the Raiders, they win maybe one game last year. I see very little difference between Smith and Cassel. I think KC would have been smarter to give a third and fourth for Nick Foles and keep that second to upgrade a team with a ton of holes. If you watch Palmer play last year, he played at an extremely high level. Far higher than Smith, and that's been the truth for him over many years with many crappy teams.

If the 9ers turn around and use that second and third to get Revis from the Jets, it'll sickly improve an already extremely good D. That's like highway robbery. I bet Arizona offered as much for Smith, but it's smart to trade him out of the division since he knows their D.

[Jay]

Totally disagree Lyion. Revis is coming off an ACL injury and too much money. There are some stud DBs in the draft that I would prefer to trade up for. 15 draft picks this year. I'd rather spend the free agent money on a WR like Harvin or Wallace and draft a DB.

[Arlos]

Totally disagree Lyion. Revis is coming off an ACL injury and too much money. There are some stud DBs in the draft that I would prefer to trade up for. 15 draft picks this year. I'd rather spend the free agent money on a WR like Harvin or Wallace and draft a DB.

I can certainly see your point.

Here's what I see as the 49ers needs:

1) Secondary help. Especially this if Goldson signs elsewhere. We absolutely need a good cover CB, and might need a good S, too.

2) DL depth, and a young potential-stud who can be heir apparent and understudy to Justin Smith.

3) At least one more really good WR. I assume Moss is gone, but we do get Mario Manningham back from injury, and we still have that AJ Jenkins kid we drafted in the 1st round last year, who didn't play for us at all last year.

So, Revis (if he gets back to his old self), would pretty much exactly fix our biggest need. However, there is no way in hell we can afford someone getting paid a base salary of 15mil a year back there (which is apparently Revis' salary demand), nor is there any way in hell any D player on the 49ers is going to get paid 50% more than Patrick Willis is getting paid. (10mil a year, effectively, on his recent extension) Plus, apparently Chris Mortensen posted something today saying he'd been informed by a source that the 49ers have no interest in Revis. So, there's that.

With Revis out of the question, maybe the 49ers WILL trade for someone like Percy Harvin. Again though, I am not sure I see them blowing that big a hole in their salary cap situation with a potential head case.

Honestly, I think the most likely scenario is this:

1) The 49ers re-sign Goldson to a long-term contract at something like 7.5-8m a year.

2) They do bring in a good WR, but that they can get at something of a discount. Wes Welker, maybe? If they are going to spend big at the position, Greg Jennings might be an option here, as he's a good character guy by all accounts, and seemed to have regained his pre-injury form when he came back last year. That injury history might keep his price down to reasonable levels too.

3) They package a big chunk of their picks in order to move up to 2 early 1st rounders, and take a top-flight cover corner, and a young stud DL. Use all remaining picks to draft depth, etc. One article I raid suggested the 49ers will take a mid-round flier on that injured South Carolina RB, Lattimore, who was originally graded as the #1 RB of his class before his injury, but now might not be able to play at all in 2013. Apparently he's been talking to Frank Gore regularly, given the similarity of their situatiosn coming out of college, and the 49ers think highly of him. Gore can't go forever, so probably well worth spending a 4th or so on Lattimore, stash him on the PUP list for 2013, then see what he can do in 2014.

-Arlos

[Tikker]

..

[Lyion]

The thing is Revis is essentially a one year 'rental' and his salary is offset by Alex Smiths, and those draft picks likewise are offset. If he is 80% of the player he was before he's still far better than anyone on the 9ers roster. I can understand Harbuagh going the draft route, though. Considering if, big if, the 9ers make it to the Super Bowl again, that they'll most likely face Brady, Manning, or Flacco then they definitely need a big upgrade in their secondary.

I think the Jets will have a tough time offloading Revis due to his salary and the injury. I still bet they do, simply because he is not a head case and ACL surgery recovery seems to be much more complete than it was before, and nobody ahs ever questioned the guys work ethic.

This should be a fun offseason.

[Reynaldo]

That's why I think a team can get him for a mid round pick and not 1sts or 2nds.

His salary cripples the Jets and you're obviously not going to sign him long term after this year when he's 29/30 or whatever.

Could totally see the 9ers or Bucs getting him for a 4th and especially for the 9ers would be proclaimed as the best offseason of all time after the Smith trade.

----

Wouldn't happen but it would be fun to see if the Chiefs take Geno at #1 anyway and try to do a Rivers/Manning type deal with someone who really wanted him.

[Reynaldo]

Chiefs doing great in the offseason.

Wish we could have done the exact same moves and taken Geno instead of trading for Alex but I'll roll with it for a couple years and see how it goes.

Still don't think we can win the West with Peypey still out there plus getting Welker, but maybe be in the hunt for a wild card.

[Tikker]

.

[Arlos]

Not especially thrilled with the 49ers letting Dashon Goldson walk, but there's just no way to pay everybody, given the salary cap.

Wouldn't surprise me if they picked up Nnamdi Asomugha on the cheap, and apparently they're looking at Charles Woodson as well. Not entirely sure how I feel about either one. Asomugha I like better, since he's only 30, and was once outstanding. The Eagles were just bad, so not sure if he was bad caue the team was bad, or he's lost a step. Woodson, though, I like a lot less, unless he's insanely cheap. Definitely not much left in the tank at this point.

We also signed Glenn Dorsey, who I am not entirely familiar with. Rey, can you shed some light on the guy, since he was with the Chiefs?

-Arlos

[Reynaldo]

He's a 4-3 defensive tackle (out of college) that never really caught on being forced into a 3-4 five-technique end in Crennel's system.

He won't beat out any of the guys you currently have on the D-Line but he'll be a great rotational guy or be able to fill in if someone goes down.

I believe the 9ers run a 3-4 as well.

[brinstar]

dorsey was LSU right? seem to remember him being a monster for les tigres

[Lyion]

NFL Draft time. This draft seems boring after last years with RG3 and Luck and the glitz. 10 OTs up.. Zzzzz

Jets trade Revis.. This baffles me, as he was the cornerstone of their D. I like the Bucs, but I think Freeman isn't ready for primetime yet.

My Chargers <and Browns> will still suck next year.

[Arlos]

I'm actually quite intrigued by the draft this year. There is absolutely no way at all that the 49ers would be able to give roster slots to everyone they could take with all of their draft picks. They simply don't have the open roster slots. This means they are either going to be packaging picks to move up or will be turning picks this year into better picks next year. Either way, it's going to mean a lot of wheeling and dealing, and I'm truly curious to see what Baalke does. We need to come out of this draft with at least 1 really good DL, 1-2 DBs, and probably a backup TE. Someone to understudy at center for a year or two wouldn't hurt either. Definitely looking forward to who and what we actually get.

-Arlos

[Gaazy]

if theres any Jets fans here I feel sorry for ya. Im here to tell ya, being from West Virginia Ive watched Geno play for a long time...and hes waaaay overrated. The reason hes got the stats he does is because Tavon Austin would catch a 5 yeard pass and turn it into a 80 yard run most of the time. He also has a bad fucking attitude. Like this week for example. After not being drafted first round, he whined and said he wasnt comin back for the next round, then his agent jumped his ass and made him take it back and go. Hes a little bitch, and always has been when he was at WVU. Another reason he did well at wvu is he had Stedman Bailey. Between him and Tavon, hell I could be a star.

Tavon will do well in the NFL. Hes such a damn explosive player its unreal. I have watched him do some fucking amazing things. Hes just a damn bad ass. Stedmans OK, but Tavon was unreal. Hes the reason Geno had his numbers. Good example was the Oklahoma game. Fucking guy had like 600 all purpose yards to himself.

[Arlos]

So, how does everyone feel about how their teams' drafts turned out?

I was pretty damn happy about the 49ers draft, actually. New safety, top-end DL, a new TE to replace Delanie Walker, an outside pass rusher, a very good WR, and some potential practice squad guys. They got some big-time steals, according to all the talking heads. I am a little surprised we didn't do more stockpiling of picks for future drafts, since we don't REALLY need all the late round picks. Then again, it takes two to tango, and it's possible they just couldn't find anyone interested in swinging those trades.

One prospect we picked up as an undrafted free agent I find really quite interesting. His name is Lawrence Okoye, and he's actually never played football before in his life. He is, though, an absolutely insanely gifted athlete. He's 6'6" and 305 lbs, and runs a 4.7 40. On top of that, he has a 35" vertical leap and has a 10.5 foot standing broad jump, which are all absolutely ridiculous numbers for someone his size. He did play rugby for many years, so he's not completely unfamiliar with most of the concepts in football. He also picked up the discus for the first time at 18 years old, and at 20 not only made the British olympic team in the sport, he made the final round of competition. 2 years. Oh, and he was accepted into Oxford's law school, so he's extremely bright, too. If he ever picks up football to the extent he did the discus, he's going to be a monumental force on the D line for YEARS. http://bleacherreport.com/articles/1621 ... isco-49ers

-Arlos

[Reynaldo]

And they got Lattimore who is probably the best RB in the class if he comes back 100%

Rich got richer, you deserve to be really happy about that class.

Chiefs got a solid at #1 overall then gambled on upside on their 3rd rounders. The Alabama LB was a solid in the 4th then I never heard of the rest of the dudes.