Re: 2016 elections.
Posted: Tue Feb 02, 2016 11:26 am2/2, groundhog day, morning after iowa
well well well
huckster is gone, good riddance. christie, santorum, fiorina, gilmore and kasich are statistically invisible. jeb!, rand, and even carson are blips on the screen. the big news is that a) cruz's strong ground game pushed him past trump and that b) rubio looks serious for once. the punditverse is swimming with chatter - some say that's what trump gets for snubbing the last debate, others say this proves trump was never that threatening in the first place. the most sensible response i've seen says that the result is indicative of trump having almost no fundraising and a very absent ground game, versus crubio busting their asses 24/7. this is the wakeup call the party needed though i think - trump is going to have to decide if he still thinks he can win by making almost no effort (or if he even cares anymore), rubio is going to figure out a way to translate his strong finish into some serious momentum if he wants to catch cruz, and the underclowns are going to have to decide how much of their donors' money they want to keep wasting.
on the other side, a mere 0.2% separated bernie and hillary. in IA dem caucus rules, a tie is decided by a coin toss, and hillary won six such contests - plus who knows how o'malley's 0.5% might've redistributed if he'd dropped out BEFORE the caucus opened. so yeah hillary technically wins because she came out on top by a hair, but it's dumb to say bernie lost considering he came into this show with half the money and infrastructure she has and a quarter the name recognition. bernie is gonna slay in NH, but i fear he will run into a wall when he gets to super tuesday
i watched all the speeches at the end of the night, here are my observations:
1. rubio looked pretty jazzed, but it amazes me how most of these GOP candidates sound more like they're running against barack obama than they are against hillary or bernie or each other. honestly of all the clowns he's the one i'm most afraid of - he's young, he's fairly charismatic, he's moderate on a couple of issues, and he could sway a big chunk of the latino vote. lol'd at his slip-ups though, like when he said "thanks to the people of new hampshire tonight" haha
2. cruz is a fucking creep. he sounds like a villain speaking to his henchman, threatening destruction and annihilation of his enemies. what bugged me the most is that a lot of his rhetoric seems to be predicated on destroying ideas - which isn't really possible. you can't destroy ISIS, because ISIS is an idea. you can only destroy its members and hope there aren't enough members left to continue spreading the idea. likewise when he said he would drive liberal ideology "into the potomac and out to sea" or something like that. what the fuck? 8 years of RWR didn't destroy liberal ideology, 4 years of GHWB didn't destroy liberal ideology, and 8 years of GWB didn't destroy liberal ideology. this liberal ideology you think is some heinous beast to be drowned at sea with spears and torches just elected your antichrist TWICE, and yet you think you'll drive a stake into its heart with your presidency? that's either planet-sized hubris or an incredibly disturbing threat. also, do you notice how this paragraph is super long? that's because he talked for a fucking century. goddamn he loves to hear himself spew. he's probably still going, in fact. let's cut to trump.
3. uhhhh... hmmm. what is this person i see on stage? he actually seemed genuine for once, even... dare i say... human? showing respect and grace in taking second? didn't jaw on and on, or mug for the cameras? so weird. oh, the crack at the end about maybe buying a farm. there you are, now you seem familiar. nice (for once), short, and a quip at the end.
oh cruz is still going lmao
4. hillary was fired up! she had that adrenaline dump of a heavily-favored prep-school basketball team who only barely squeaked out a 2-point win in the final seconds over a bunch of yokels from outstate mooseknuckle high, and it was reinforced by the knowledge that only a seriously lucky streak of coin tosses separated her from 2nd place. she kept shouting her credentials as though she realized she almost didn't convince enough people, and kept pointing out that she's a progressive even though bernie is far out-progressive-ing her. bill looked drunk.
5. say what you want about the final tally, but nobody's crowd was as fired up as bernie's. they almost wouldn't let him talk at times they were so loud - and they chimed in to help finish some of his sentences. i got chills. he still faces an uphill battle, of course, but for fuck's sake maybe the media will stop ignoring him now
cruz is still going
finally a quick word about demographics
-people under age 45 overwhelmingly supported bernie, including a 90-10 split amongst millennials.
-on the "trustworthiness" poll question, bernie destroyed hillary 85-15
-on the "necessary experience" poll question, hillary came out on top 80-20
-97% of republican caucusgoers were white
aaaaand cruz is still going
well well well
huckster is gone, good riddance. christie, santorum, fiorina, gilmore and kasich are statistically invisible. jeb!, rand, and even carson are blips on the screen. the big news is that a) cruz's strong ground game pushed him past trump and that b) rubio looks serious for once. the punditverse is swimming with chatter - some say that's what trump gets for snubbing the last debate, others say this proves trump was never that threatening in the first place. the most sensible response i've seen says that the result is indicative of trump having almost no fundraising and a very absent ground game, versus crubio busting their asses 24/7. this is the wakeup call the party needed though i think - trump is going to have to decide if he still thinks he can win by making almost no effort (or if he even cares anymore), rubio is going to figure out a way to translate his strong finish into some serious momentum if he wants to catch cruz, and the underclowns are going to have to decide how much of their donors' money they want to keep wasting.
on the other side, a mere 0.2% separated bernie and hillary. in IA dem caucus rules, a tie is decided by a coin toss, and hillary won six such contests - plus who knows how o'malley's 0.5% might've redistributed if he'd dropped out BEFORE the caucus opened. so yeah hillary technically wins because she came out on top by a hair, but it's dumb to say bernie lost considering he came into this show with half the money and infrastructure she has and a quarter the name recognition. bernie is gonna slay in NH, but i fear he will run into a wall when he gets to super tuesday
i watched all the speeches at the end of the night, here are my observations:
1. rubio looked pretty jazzed, but it amazes me how most of these GOP candidates sound more like they're running against barack obama than they are against hillary or bernie or each other. honestly of all the clowns he's the one i'm most afraid of - he's young, he's fairly charismatic, he's moderate on a couple of issues, and he could sway a big chunk of the latino vote. lol'd at his slip-ups though, like when he said "thanks to the people of new hampshire tonight" haha
2. cruz is a fucking creep. he sounds like a villain speaking to his henchman, threatening destruction and annihilation of his enemies. what bugged me the most is that a lot of his rhetoric seems to be predicated on destroying ideas - which isn't really possible. you can't destroy ISIS, because ISIS is an idea. you can only destroy its members and hope there aren't enough members left to continue spreading the idea. likewise when he said he would drive liberal ideology "into the potomac and out to sea" or something like that. what the fuck? 8 years of RWR didn't destroy liberal ideology, 4 years of GHWB didn't destroy liberal ideology, and 8 years of GWB didn't destroy liberal ideology. this liberal ideology you think is some heinous beast to be drowned at sea with spears and torches just elected your antichrist TWICE, and yet you think you'll drive a stake into its heart with your presidency? that's either planet-sized hubris or an incredibly disturbing threat. also, do you notice how this paragraph is super long? that's because he talked for a fucking century. goddamn he loves to hear himself spew. he's probably still going, in fact. let's cut to trump.
3. uhhhh... hmmm. what is this person i see on stage? he actually seemed genuine for once, even... dare i say... human? showing respect and grace in taking second? didn't jaw on and on, or mug for the cameras? so weird. oh, the crack at the end about maybe buying a farm. there you are, now you seem familiar. nice (for once), short, and a quip at the end.
oh cruz is still going lmao
4. hillary was fired up! she had that adrenaline dump of a heavily-favored prep-school basketball team who only barely squeaked out a 2-point win in the final seconds over a bunch of yokels from outstate mooseknuckle high, and it was reinforced by the knowledge that only a seriously lucky streak of coin tosses separated her from 2nd place. she kept shouting her credentials as though she realized she almost didn't convince enough people, and kept pointing out that she's a progressive even though bernie is far out-progressive-ing her. bill looked drunk.
5. say what you want about the final tally, but nobody's crowd was as fired up as bernie's. they almost wouldn't let him talk at times they were so loud - and they chimed in to help finish some of his sentences. i got chills. he still faces an uphill battle, of course, but for fuck's sake maybe the media will stop ignoring him now
cruz is still going
finally a quick word about demographics
-people under age 45 overwhelmingly supported bernie, including a 90-10 split amongst millennials.
-on the "trustworthiness" poll question, bernie destroyed hillary 85-15
-on the "necessary experience" poll question, hillary came out on top 80-20
-97% of republican caucusgoers were white
aaaaand cruz is still going