http://www.debka.com/
Five navies led by US begin naval exercise Sunday, Oct. 29, off Persian Gulf Iranian coast. Iran’s armed forces on high alert, its air force chief replaced
October 29, 2006, 10:29 PM (GMT+02:00)
The Western navies are to practice tactics for blocking the smuggling of nuclear weapons and components. Iran’s armed forces responded at once by declaring a high state of preparedness and branding the war games “adventurous.” Their alert encompassed the joint naval units of the military and Revolutionary Guards in the Persian Gulf, while the Revolutionary Guards, the Iranian army, navy and air force were placed on “yellow” alert, one level short of full war.
Also Sunday, supreme ruler Ayatollah Ali Khamenei replaced Iran’s air force chief, Karim Qavami with Brig Gen Capt Ahmad Miqani, on the recommendation of the Revolutionary Guards commander.
In September, the outgoing air force chief, a US-trained pilot, commanded Iran’s military maneuvers which tested a new air defense system, fighter planes and laser-guided bombs. DEBKAfile’s Iran sources report that Khamenei did not approve of Qavami’s admiration of America’s military capabilities – especially the US air force’s advanced aircraft and equipment. He was wont to speak out at general staff meetings in favor of procuring a new air fleet the better to stand up to a possible US attack. His successor follows the supreme ruler unquestioningly and has complete faith in the ability of Iran and its air force to match the US and its air might.
If there is any truth to it, I would think that our national media would report it. A foreign country who is unfriendly to the US raises it's readiness level to just below a war time level wouldn't be something I would think you would just brush off.
Of further concern the IRIAF is formidable, and I'm inclined to not simply dismiss claims it could go toe to toe with US forces as typical "chest puffing". US military action in recent years has relied heavily on air superiority as is evident in Iraq. I seriously doubt the Iranian Air Force will roll over as easily as the Iraqi Air Force did. Among the arsenal of the IRIAF is around 80 F-14 Tomcats although I've read that operational birds number at about half that.
About a month ago USA Today had an article about the retirement of the F-14 Tomcat by the US Navy, it's role is to be replaced by F-18's. This would generally make it appear that the F-14 is somewhat dated, and that F-18's would have an advantage. While it is true that the F-18's are a more versatile aircraft to the best of my knowledge they still lack the capability to carry the Phoenix missile. Where this becomes important is that the F-14 carrying the Phoenix missile is renowned for it's ability to shoot down enemy air craft before the enemy aircraft can even see it visually or via radar. The F-18 to the best of my knowledge carries nothing that can match the range. While I would hope that the powers that be making the decisions to take the F-14 out of service would have addressed the issue here in loss of capability, it does demonstrate that although we are decommissioning these air craft they aren't as dated as that action would make them seem.
All in all the most frightening thing I see is that there is the very real possibility that if military action against Iran were to be taken that air superiority would not be something we would enjoy as we have in Iraq (think of a virtual bubble over the country where nothing is airborne without our forces knowing about it) Without the ability to soften targets via air strikes any sort of ground operation would likely be met with heavy resistance. If you think Iraq is bad concerning ground operations and casualties, I'm thinking it's very likely Iran could be much worse.
Don't get me wrong, I don't doubt US military capability, but if a military confrontation results from an effort to enforce sanctions we could find ourselves in a state of Deja Vu, with yet another Mid-east country shooting at our aircraft while we attempt to enforce sanctions implemented by the UN, couple that with the debate about Iran's nuclear program.. and damed if it doesn't sound a whole hell of a lot like Iraq 2.0.
Judging by the current anti-Iraq movement, I do wonder about public support for any type of military action involving Iran.. I'll bet Ahmadinejad is considering this too ><.
