by Arlos » Wed Oct 01, 2008 10:10 am
And a lot of it is companies that pushed loans to people far outside the boundaries of any sane envelope of risk, strictly for short term profit. Nothing in those changes in 95 prevented loan originators form even checking if someone asking for a loan had an income or not, correct? Yet in 05 and 06, etc. tons of loans were being made to people who did not! Nothing in those 95 changes forbade loan companies from actually, you know, verifying information people put on their loan applications, right? Yet why were so many loans approved for people who baldly lied on their applications with no back checking ever done? You still claiming that either of those things has anything to do with those changes in 95?
Hell, if the 95 changes were to blame, why exactly did it take 12+ years for the problem to hit, hmmm? The biggest defaults have happened on those variable rate mortgages, that jump in interest rate after 2 years, which means those loans were made in 04-06, a DECADE after the changes in 95. Oh yeah, I see a direct causal effect, suuuuuure.
No, the source of the problem was the explosion in trading of derivatives that there was no oversight on or regulation of. This was combined with bonus structures that rewarded people who sold loans to anyone and everyone, and the greed of many Wall Street firms that allowed themselves to become insanely leveraged because it allowed them to generate massive paper profits for only small shifts in true valuation. Hell, Lehman brothers was running a 35:1 debt ratio. Even a small downturn would have been catastrophic for them given that level of risk. Other Wall Street firms were nearly as leveraged. Are you going to sit there and tell me that the '95 changes somehow forced Lehman brothers into that level of leveraging? I don't think you're THAT insane, are you?
No, screaming about the '95 changes are an attempt by the Republicans to shift blame away from their now obviously failed "Trickle-Down" economic theory by trying to blame Clinton and poor people. It's disgusting, it's ludicrous, and people aren't buying it this time.
Ultimately, I think what should happen is a bottom-up approach. Work with the people holding the mortgages and the actual lenders. Dump the people that lied about their incomes, etc. That's the truly toxic part that's causing the most problems. Then, work with those who could afford their loans originally, but got hit with huge rate spikes, etc, and weren't able to re-fi as promised, and who's loan is now bigger than their home value.
Let them work with judges to re-value the loans and re-adjust the interest rates back to something sane. Drop the value of the loan down to the current value of the house, less any equity they've already paid for in their loan payments. This means the values of those securities will be getting adjusted to real market conditions, and will not in any way artificially hold home prices up. But it will allow people to actually keep their homes and allow proper valuation of the securities directly based on the mortgages.
One way we help pay for this is adopt a British idea, that hasn't seemed to impede their financial markets one iota: a quarter percent tax on any stock transaction. Even a million dollar stock deal is only going to pay 2500 in tax, so no one in middle america who's involved in the stock market is even going to notice it. Furthermore, it will encourage longer-term stock holding, as if you just hold onto a stock rather than high volume day trading, you avoid the tax. But what it would do is raise between 100-200 BILLION dollars in new revenue a year, and all without hurting the middle class in the least....
-Arlos