Thoughts after 2 hours reading old NT threads

[Martrae]

the captain! sadface.

i don't know if i'm considered an OG but man i would be sad if we couldn't at least still pop in here from time to time and see how everyone's doing. <3

what ever happened to taxx, then? surely they're not still together. where's kizzy? and martrae, and her husband guy? and the lovely jennay, who i am glad to be FB friends with at least. and actually i think i'm still FB friends with flink too? maybe not.

I'm actually on FB too.
https://www.facebook.com/The.Denise.McGee (yeah, it's dumb but someone sniped plain old Denise.McGee and I needed my name in the URL)

It's nice to see a lot of the old names, though.

[kaharthemad]

the captain! sadface.

i don't know if i'm considered an OG but man i would be sad if we couldn't at least still pop in here from time to time and see how everyone's doing. <3

what ever happened to taxx, then? surely they're not still together. where's kizzy? and martrae, and her husband guy? and the lovely jennay, who i am glad to be FB friends with at least. and actually i think i'm still FB friends with flink too? maybe not.

I'm actually on FB too.
https://www.facebook.com/The.Denise.McGee (yeah, it's dumb but someone sniped plain old Denise.McGee and I needed my name in the URL)

It's nice to see a lot of the old names, though.

The 'husband guy' is around I just dont have much time anymore.

[Drem]

Hey guys. Long time no see! How're things?

[Jay]

Hello Kahar and Mart Ray!

[Harrison]

Hey guys, long time no see!

Did you get the bat signal? wtf lol

[kaharthemad]

Hey guys, long time no see!

Did you get the bat signal? wtf lol

nahh brother, we were here to read the 4th of July post from the real president.


We are doing good. moved back to Georgia. Kids are all well (hell, have a daughter driving next year) just basically surviving and try to duck when the shit hits the fan.

[brinstar]

Go ahead and PM me the long version.

me too pls

[Jay]

Go ahead and PM me the long version.

me too pls

Me 3

[Arlos]

Heh, I guess if more than me want to read it, just post it here then.

-Arlos

[Xaiveir]

Been gone for the weekend, so didnt get a chance to post it. Since there is more than 1 person wanting to see it posted, ill post it up here in a spoiler, so there isnt a huge wall of text for everyone else.

Spoiler for :

There are quite a few moving parts with whats gone wrong with Tim. First his average fastball velocity is down from his Cy Young years. 94.1 MPH during '08 to 92.2 MPH in '11. For 2012 and 2013 so far his fastball velocity is 90.4 and 90.2 respectively. While a 2 MPH on his average fastball doesn't seem like much, its actually a pretty huge dip. His fastball use to play off his change up for a devastating combination. His change has stayed relatively the same speed wise, (about .3 variation from year to year). On average you want a 10 MPH difference on your change and fastball. Over 10 to 11 MPH it becomes to easy for the hitter to not get fooled, and have plenty of time to sit back (especially the circle change that Tim throws, as its vertical movement is not the same as say Felix Hernandez. Under 10 MPH, a hitter instead of swinging through and missing is going to foul that pitch off.

Tim's Change up was one of the most devastating pitches in baseball over the year. He also throws a decent curve ball and a show me slider. Its called a show me slider because its a pitch that he doesn't command very well, and he will just throw it to keep the batter guessing. If its thrown to much it usually winds up in the seats, but if used 7.1-7.3 % of his pitches its fine (his percentage in his Cy Young years). Tim has been using his slider the past 2 years at a whopping clip of 21.3% of the time in 2012 and 21.2% in 2013.

The last part of the symptoms is his walk rate. Tim went from a walk rate of 9.1, 7.5 and 8.5 in '08, '09, and '10. That spiked at 10.9 in '12 and 9.8 so far in '13 (Tim has been doing better in the walk department lately. 3 weeks ago that walk rate in 2013 was at 11.2).

The question then becomes why? Why is he losing velocity, have a spiking walk rate, and throwing his slider more?

In 2009, Tim had a minor back injury, where the entire city (and fans of the Giants) collectively held their breathe till he was back. The injury was only spasms and inflammation. As he has gotten older, those back spasms and inflammation never really go away. With someone that has a VERY complicated delivery and his size, he has to rely on all parts of his body working in unison to achieve his desired velocity.

The most important part of Lincecums delivery is his stride length. It is ridiculously long as it relates to his height. And just as his left foot, the landing foot, appears to be nearing the ground at the end of his stride, he lifts it as if stepping over a banana peel—extending his stride even more. The normal stride length for a pitcher is 77% to 87% of his height. Lincecum's stride is 129%, or roughly 7 1/2 feet.

A long stride, however, carries two severe risks for pitchers: 1) It can compromise the ability to rotate the hips; and 2) it can cause a pitcher to land on his heel with a stiff front leg, the equivalent of slamming on the brakes in a car. Jump and then land on your heels. The shock of the impact travels up your legs to your hips. It hurts. Imagine doing it 100 times a game over many games over many years. It's no wonder that long-stride pitchers such as Britt Burns, who needed a hip replacement, and Jason Schmidt, never could stay off the disabled list, break down.

Lincecums stride length has decreased dramatically the last couple of years. It is now closer to 6-61/2 feet. When this happens it results in a slowing of the arm, . It also results in trying to speed the arm up too much to compensate, which leads to bad location with the fastball, no increase in velocity and a tendency to throw through off-speed pitches and leave them straight and a little up.

This covers all areas of problems with Tim. Decreased velocity? Check. Spiking walk rate due to bad location? Check Throwing his slider more? Yes, because his change up is no longer the devastating pitch that it used to be he is forced to mix in more curve balls and sliders to get people out. Instead of needing only 2 pitches to get someone out, he now has to use 4. And when your 3rd and 4th pitch are at best major league average, you are going to have issues. Check.

There is 1 more problem, but its not really with Tim. It's with the Giants. Tim's FiP (fielder independent pitching on an ERA scale) has actually been decent at 4.18 in 2012 and so far 3.70 in 2013. His ERA in those years? 5.18 in '12 and 4.66 so far in '13. Which means the Giants have gotten much worse in the defense department (true) and Tim has gotten unlucky in his batted ball profile. (also true).

In conclusion, yes Tim Lincecum is not as good as he used to be, and to improve back to those levels he is going to need to either change his delivery or train harder strengthening his legs and back. But he is not as bad as his ERA (i hate that metric) makes his look

If anyone wants me to expand on anything let me know. Or if you want me to explain FiP etc.

[vonkaar]

I don't follow baseball at all and I found that incredibly fascinating.

[brinstar]

jesus fuck that was a hell of a read. please go on.

in the meantime, please enjoy this video:



baked baseball wizard ftw

[Jay]

That was the greatest answer to any question ever given on NT. I don't even really like baseball.

I gather you're never invited to fantasy baseball leagues =P

[Xaiveir]

That was the greatest answer to any question ever given on NT. I don't even really like baseball.

I gather you're never invited to fantasy baseball leagues =P

Glad you enjoyed it. Any questions with baseball that you need answers to, let me know lol. As it pertains to fantasy baseball, yeah people dont like playing with me

[Arlos]

Great read, Xaiv.

So is there any fix for his issue? Would shutting him down for a year while he works on a bunch of stretching and strength training targeted at taking care of that weak area in his back do it?

Oh, and why do you think Brian Wilson hasn't ended up anywhere? Is he done after that Tommy John surgery? Or is it more of a case of teams not wanting to deal with his, uh, eccentricities? (I think those made him MORE popular here, not less, actually)

Since I'm sure you've seen it, what did you think of the Ken Burns uber-documentary on Baseball? Finally been watching that myself, and even though I'm far from a baseball fanatic, been interesting hearing about a lot of the stuff from the early early days (1900-1920s, etc)

Lastly, do you have an opinion on the whole Oakland stadium saga, and the lawsuit they just filed? Seems to me the Giants are being assholes about it, since the only reason they have any claim to the San Jose rights is because Oakland gave their OK for SF to potentially move there at one point. It's obvious Selig's "blue ribbon" commission never intended to actually do anything about it, given that it's been something like 3+ years since they first met. Thoughts?

-Arlos

[Xaiveir]

Started a new topic to answer those Arlos (and for anyone else that wants to talk some baseball)


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