How to lose an election in Canada

[Narrock]

Remember, you heard it here first folks...

[Zanchief]

Except even with a Government that massively defrauds the taxpayers, it seems most Canadians are ambivalent about politics.

Republicans blatantly lied to the public and they still got reelected, Lyion~

Conservatives aren't gonna win anything, Mindia. And even if they did, which they wont, they would win a minority government that would do them no good at all.

[Lyion]

Keep watching state sponsored TV, Comrade!

[Gidan]

They've talked about it on a number of talk shows including CNN radio, which I listen to every morning.

Havn't you said that CNN is leftest propoganda? Why would you have any interest in what they are saying?

[Zanchief]

Keep watching state sponsored TV, Comrade!

ZING~

Still right though.

[Narrock]

They've talked about it on a number of talk shows including CNN radio, which I listen to every morning.

Havn't you said that CNN is leftest propoganda? Why would you have any interest in what they are saying?

You're missing the point.

[Zanchief]

They've talked about it on a number of talk shows including CNN radio, which I listen to every morning.

Havn't you said that CNN is leftest propoganda? Why would you have any interest in what they are saying?

You're missing the point.

How would you know? You said you blocked that channel from your TV.

[Narrock]

They've talked about it on a number of talk shows including CNN radio, which I listen to every morning.

Havn't you said that CNN is leftest propoganda? Why would you have any interest in what they are saying?

You're missing the point.

How would you know? You said you blocked that channel from your TV.

Reading comprehension never was one of your greater attributes.

[Tikker]

ALl bullshit aside


Feel free to elaborate on why you think the Tories will win Mindia

[Rust]

It doesn't matter what the general feeling in the US is, the tories will not win


The won't win seats in Ontario

They won't win seats in Quebec

that along means they won't win a majority government

The NDP and Liberal are closer in ideology than any of the other 2 parties


and if you look back in canada's history, generally the worst remembered governments were Tory governments

There are 4 significant Federal parties:

Conservative (social and fiscal conservative)
Liberal (social and fiscal centrist)
Bloc Quebecois (social and fiscal leftist)
NDP (social and fiscal leftist)

The seats divide up as follows in the House of Commons:

Atlantic Canada -- 32
Quebec -- 75
Ontario -- 106
Prairies -- 48
B.C. -- 36
Territories -- 3

Now, the current House is split as

Liberals -- 134
Conservatives - 98
Bloc -- 54 (only run in Quebec)
NDP -- 19
Indep -- 3 (really 2 Liberals and a Conservative)

So to score a majority, the Conservatives need 155 seats.

BC: Every report I've seen (and looking at the recent BC provincial election) says the NDP is going to score a lot better next election. Right now BC is 22 Conservatives, 8 Liberals, 5 NDP and 1 Indep. -- I'd think the NDP will pick up a few seats here, at the expense of the Conservatives. Let's say they get 7 from the Conservatives.

Quebec: Going to be a virtual blowout for the Bloc. MAybe a few Liberals will hold on in Montreal and the Outaouais. No Conservatives.

Atlantic Canada - ok, let's assume the Conservatives go from their current seat totals of 7 to maybe 15. Not likely, since the locals know what side of the bread the butter is on, and it's the Liberal side. Net gain outside the West and Ontario - 1 seat.

So that means the Conservatives are looking at a net +1 seat.

The Prairies -- of the 48 seats out here, the Conservatives already have 38. They're not going to win any of the NDP seats in Manitoba, so even if they clean up the other 6 Liberal seats (which they might), they're net +7 outside Ontario.

So it comes down to Ontario. The big prize, 106 seats.

Currently, the Conservatives have 23 seats, the NDP have 7, the Liberals 75 and an ex-Liberal 'independant'.

So to hit the magic 155 seats, the Conservatives have to pick up +57, with +50 seats coming from Ontario - they need to hit about 73 seats.

They're not winning any of the NDP seats, in fact the NDP should do better next election. So they've got to get the Liberals (including the ex-) down to about 26 seats.

Now, the truism is that Toronto votes left, and the rural ridings tend to be more conservative. Toronto itself is something like 25 ridings, of which 15 to 20 will go Liberal come Hell or high water. Likewise, the Ottawa region is also a Liberal stronghold.

So to win a majority, the Conservatives have to pretty much sweep Ontario outside the urban cores of Toronto, Ottawa, Hamilton, London, etc. The Liberals have about 25 total safe seats in Ontario. If even a few more stay Liberal, it's a Conservative Minority.

If it breaks as well for the Conservatives as it can reasonably be expected to, I'd predict:

Conservatives - 150 seats
Bloc - 68 seats
Liberals - 60 seats
NDP - 30 seats

... and the minority Government from Hell, with one right wing government party having to co-opt the Liberals to pass a damn thing, in the face of three left-wing parties that out-number it.

More realistic is the Liberals lose a few seats in Ontario (say up to 20 to the Conservatives) and a few seats in Quebec (to the Bloc):

Conservatives -- 116 seats
Liberal -- 94 seats
Bloc -- 68 seats
NDP -- 30 seats

Even worse for the Conservatives -- they couldn't pass a damn thing. And that's assuming people vote for them in Ontario to give them 20 seats. From the polls, that ain't gonna happen either.

If there's a fall election, based on how things are going, the next government will be a Liberal minority as well. The right-wing in Canada are famous for not being in tune with 'average Canadians' -- you should have seen the Alberta right-wing nutbars screaming after the last election about how Ontario was insane not to vote Conservative and how Alberta should secede.

I assume Mindia gets his info from those aforementioned right-wing nutbars.

--R.

[Snero]

the best the conservatives can do, imo, is a minority gov which would get ripped up by the liberals and the NDP. The liberals can make a coalition work because they can, normally, either extend olive branches to the tories if they decide to move a bit to the right, or to the NDP if they want to move left. If you think people are moving to the right, I don't know if you followed canadian politics last election mindia, but martin was trailing in the poles and he wasn't doing well at all until he started preaching how if people didn't vote liberal, harper would win. That scared enough votes to let him win. People really don't want a liberal gov, especially after the sponsership scandal, but in a lot of cases, they see the alternatives as worse.

[Wrath Child]

Everytime I start to truly loathe our government here, I just tune on the CBC and suddenly it doesn't quite seem so bad. Now that's what good neighbors are for!