Posted: Mon Jan 02, 2006 7:34 am
that looks about right
Watch where you step
https://namelesstavern.net/
lyion wrote:Er, Houston was considered the bottom of the barrel since day 1. San Fran WON day 1. They were in many games, and currently have a better record than Houston, against a harder strength of schedule.
San Fran traded their starting QB, or probably would've had a better year. They were playing some 5th string rodeo guy, Cody Pickett, and still were a better overall team than Houston was. Houston sucked ass and wasn't in almost any early game, unlike SF. Houston only started winning when other NFL teams started mailing in games.
David Carr is an experienced, decent QB but even he couldn't make Houston a better team than San Fran with Pickett starting. Houston has woeful O & DLs. San Fran does not. Thats the big difference and the reason it'll be easier for SF to get competitive.
San Fran has more talent in the trenches and a good, young coach and system. Houston does not have a new coach and most likely will bring in a new regime and change next year.
San Fran was 'in' quite a few games, and not nearly as far away from competing as Houston was.
Frank Gore and Barlow are both better runners with more upside than Dom Davis, in my opinion. As most franchises have proven, you can get very good WRs in day 2 of the draft. What San Fran needs, especially against the Seahawks and Rams is a good, fast D. Getting Reggie Bush would not massively upgrade their offense, and allow them to be competitive in a year or two, in my opinion. I have reservations of if he'll be the impact player people think he will.
Also, you can disrespect San Frans WRs all you want, but Arnaz Battle made one of the prettiest catches this year I've ever seen a WR make and is good. Lloyd is a decent WR, as well.
I certainly agree that San Fran has many holes, but they also had a first round QB pick, a new coach, a cap purge, and a lot of turnover so it's difficult to say how good they really are right now.
The big difference between Houston and San Fran, is Houston has played the same guys all year in the skill positions and gotten better, whereis San Fran seems to have gotten worse, and is now using the season to evaluate talent as they should given their woeful record.
San Fran is far from being a good team, but a lot closer than Houston.
lyion wrote:Oh, and DVOA is a joke.
The current DVOA rankings have the Chefs ranked 4th and the Bengals ranked 6th.
Do you really believe KC and Cinci are top 6 teams? I don't, nor do most football knowledgeable people.
Stats only go so far in really showing things
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teameff.php
lyion wrote:DVOA had many glaring holes and obvious deficiencies this season. It's a stat tool, and like any stat tool in football it's relative to common sense and the limitations of external things.
Stats conveniently ignore things like mop up yardage/points and miscellaneous other small things that aren't included.
I do find it interesting you conveniently ignored my Cody Pickett vs David Carr analogy. Perhaps the reason you think Houston has better people is because you aren't seeing the simple fact San Fran played and evaluated many, many more people unlike Houston.
In relation to Houston vs San Fran, take it from Bill Parcells. You are what your record is. San Fran is a bad team. Houston is worse.
lyion wrote:Who won the game between the 9ers and Houston, again, Xao? Who had the better record?
Xaoshaen wrote:By any insightful measure of performance, Houston was pretty clearly better than San Fran last year
lyion wrote:If I was a conventional wisdom fan, I'd believe the team with all their beginning year starters in was trying to win. Not the one playing the ass rookies. Not the one who traded their starting QB. Which team was that again?
Anyways, this entire thread you've missed the difference between a poor team evaluating new talent (That'd be San Fran) and a team that was playing starters and not evaluating new talent very well, because they were ohshiting trying to get a win period. Something SF didn't have to worry about after week 1.
I shall now pontificate to you, Tuna style, since you need more Parcells lessons.
A team is its record. Wins and losses are all that matter, despite your attempt to justify your opinion as right in a bogus manner.
Which team was 4-12, and which was 2-14? That seems pretty insightful to me. Stats do not make wins, nor do they equate who is better than whom.
Feel free to take your stats back to the days of Air Coryell and see why they truly are subjective.
You can say Indy was a better team than New England last year. New England still has the ring and is considered the best team then. You are entitled to your opinion.
You can say KC is a better team than Cinci this year. They are still sitting at home for the playoffs. San Diego got screwed by playing 4 teams off byes cross country with a brutal unfair strength of schedule. They are still their record.
My opinion comes from watching both teams, and I feel Houston is the worst team in the league. More importantly, the league feels Houston is the worst team. Thats why they get that #1 pick, ya know.
If you think San Fran is, fine. Someone else can believe New Orleans is, or whomever else they want, and probably justify it via DVOA, Power Rankings, Aikman Stats, Eisenhower briefs or any other system they choose. It doesn't change the simple truth of the situation. A team is its record.
Now, who gets the worst team pick come the draft, Xao?
lyion wrote:The Niners traded Rattay, who was their opening day starter. Not Garcia. Jeff was in Cleveland last year, not San Fran. Do you even watch Football or just read stat charts and pretend to have a clue in your proclamation that a 2-14 team is better than one with twice its wins?
Claiming Houston was trying not to win games is your opinion and pretty asstastically unsubstantiated. Have any proof?
I suppose the owner paid the kicker on the side to miss a winning FG? Sorry, I wave the bullshit flag, as would any fan with a clue about the game.
I know the players, read up on potentials, free agency draft choices, offseason programs, injury reports, and keep up with WATCHING the teams, as well as reading other stats and various power rankings. The thing is I understand both sides of the equation. You, apparently, do not which is why you'd be fodder in a really competitive pick league.
Since you didnt bother to join our pick league, I can't say how well you'd do. Maybe next year we'll see.
xaoshaen wrote:Whoops, my bad there. I totally confused one benched ex-Niner quarterback with the other benched ex-Niner quarterback. To be sure, either Garcia or Rattay would have been an improvement over Smith's historically bad (worse than Ryan Leaf!) season, but neither of them could hold down a starting job in the NFL. Claiming they would have made San Fran significantly better is either ludicrous or a stinging indictment of the rest of the team. As I've pointed out before, and you've been entirely unable to refute, a record is just an extremely superficial stat that has little predictive power on its own.
Oh, kind of like claiming San Francisco was "in" more games than Houston, despite an inferior point differential?
Nope, the owner didn't have to pay the kicker, but most knowledgeable fans, including the guys paid to analyze the NFL would admit that Houston essentially threw two games on ridiculous missed field goals. Unless your name is Jay Feeley, you don't go missing chip shots like that in the NFL, and keep your job to do the same thing a few weeks later.
It's fairly obvious that you do not, in fact, know the players or watch games if you honestly thought that San Fran was "in" more games than Houston last year, or that losing Rattay was a major blow to the team. Oddly, I tend to do fairly well in pcik leagues. Must just be luck, eh?
Wasn't around to join last year, if I'm available, I'd be happy to play.
lyion wrote:You admit AJ Smith is bad, but then say he is no worse than Rattay, last years starter for the 9ers who is generally considered to be a decent journeyman QB, which is why Tampa traded for him. That doesn't add up. Rattay gave the 9ers a better chance to win, period. That should not be up for debate.
Let's examine a bit perhaps why the 49ers were more competitive early. Rattay led the team in TD passes despite only being there really for four games. They had 7 total. He had five of them.
They rotated through Rattay, Dorsey, Pickett, and Smith. Despite having no consistency or ANY play from the QB position worth a damn, they still beat the Texans who have a GOOD QB, who played all year.
Now, our argument has been the 49ers were closer to being a good team, than the Texans. Why? because they have more holes filled. Now, anyone with common sense can look at the revolving door at QB and realize if they had kept ONE guy in there all year they would've been a better team. Still a bottom tier team, but better. Consistency at QB is good, as has been proven over and over.
The Texans HAVE a good QB and he played all year. In your mind, they have a better WR than any of the 9ers, in Johnson. Thus, due to the fact they have the worst record, a fired coach, are going to need to implement an entire new coaching system, and arguably have the worst offensive and defensive lineplay in the league, as can be evidenced by Carr getting sacked more than UAW people this year up until they quit throwing the ball, it's pretty easy to opine they are farther away from success than the 9ers, which is what I've done.
You can believe the 9ers are worse, and I respect that, but the simple facts are based on the situations and what each team did this year it's pretty easy to push forward the Texans as the worst team. Despite a solid QB and a standout WR, they were utter garbage. San Fran, even with their QB by tryout, still was more competitive and more winning.
Read Above. We've established this. You sound like Matt Leinart after the USC loss. I'm sure USC was the better team. *snicker*
If you had bothered to watch the game and keep up with the news, you'd know about the severe rain storm, and poor field conditions in San Fran. Field Goals are never give me's, and I'll send you back to all the missed FGs from a variety of people whose names are not Vanderjagt or Vinitieri.
Except you haven't proven that at all. You reference vagaries and declare victory. Odd. Again, you have Matt Leinartitis.
Rattay beat out AJ Smith handily which you'd know if you actually watched the preseason. Once San Fran realized they weren't a playoff team, they did the right thing and traded their journeyman starter and evaluated youth . It is fairly undisputed AJ was a pretty good downgrade from Rattay right now, which you have represented quite well but very strangely used as a defense of your position which is similar to mine, and solely based on opinion.
Then we'll see next year. I won two pick leagues and was second in two others. It doesn't matter until we play each other. Kind of like how Houston and San Fran played each other. Then, after you lose, you can explain how you really won.
what