namelesstavern.net

Except that oil prices are driven by fears about changes in supply, and the insurgency in Iraq has driven those fears through the roof ever since we went. Plus, every time Bush rattles his sabre at Iran, up ratchets the price as well.

Venezuela crude is crappy stuff compared to what is pulled up out of the middle east. It's only the fact that the war-driven instability in Iraq and the rest of the region has driven oil prices up so high that Venezuelan crude has become price-efficient. (I believe it has to be well above $50 a barrel for people to bother with their stuff).

So yes, the prices that were driven up by the war have rather directly given Chavez additional world clout as it brought Venezuela's supply into play. If oil were to somehow magically drop back to $35 a barrel, the Venezuelan economy would completely tank.

-Arlos

Perhaps, but thats not a really good argument. Iraq is not effecting supply and demand or pushing oil fears, nor is Bush's 'sabre rattling' as you put it. This is a great argument in 2004, but not really today. It's a pretty poorly kept secret we won't be attacking Iran over the end of this administration. Violence has quelled and things are better in Iraq than other countries in the Middle East, which is why so many are returning their from abroad.

If anything, the lack of UN sanctions and Iraq moving towards normalcy should have a positive effect on oil prices. Iraq is much better off now in producing oil than it was 10 years ago.

Also, the devaluation of the dollar is a big reason why Oil is so high. Heck, the Canadian dollar is worth more now. Inflation and the US debt is also a big reason for oil being so high.

Unfortunately, if we roll in a new administration with promises of spending and spending, that will only devalue the dollar further and cause inflation to rise.

Hugo and other investors have been pushing for 100/barrel and it has nothing to do with Bush or the Iraq War. It more has to do with greed and investment.

And who's fault is all the recent debt accumulation? I give major Kudos to the Democrats recently for forcing tying replacing the lost revenue to getting rid of the AMT. Closing the hedge fund loophole (and others) will pretty close to make up the lost AMT income. Somehow, I don't think only being able to make 35mil/year out of 50mil base instead of 42.5mil is going to deter people from working as hedge fund managers....

Oh, and people aren't returning home in droves. Some people have come back, in small numbers, it's far from a giant wave. Plus, one reason that violence is down is that the various militias finished ethnically cleansing their respective neighborhoods. Guarantee you won't be seeing any sunni's returning to any shiia-claimed neighborhoods or visa versa, period. It was driving out people of the opposite belief group (by terror, kidnapping, torture, murder, etc) that generated a lot of the violence numbers. Since they accomplished their goals, no further need for violence. Still doesn't mean things have gotten anywhere near back towards normal.

-Arlos

The ABC quiz gave me 1. Obama 2. Clinton and 3. some gray haired man I didn't recognize.

I got Kucinich again on ABC.