HD vs Blu-Ray

[Arlos]

From what I understood, the initial spec of Blu-Ray players did not allow for playing standard DVDs on them, due to the differences in the lasers used. If that is not the case, and both HD-DVD players and Blu-Ray players will play standard DVDs, then it's a non-issue.

-Arlos

[Tossica]

Both players have a blue and a red diode in them.

[Tossica]

Major hoopla today over the Walmart sale.

Not only did Walmart slash the price on this model but Best Buy, Circuit City, Amazon, Crutchfield, Sears, Kmart, Ultimate, etc have all followed suit and dropped the price. Best estimates are that 100K+ players sold today at Walmart alone. Walmart apparantly purchased 2million of these last spring from Toshiba and has been holding out until this month to release the nuclear bomb to try to end the war this Xmas season. They will release these in batches during these "secret sales" throughout the holiday season until they sell off the stock and then will sell the replacement model, the HD-A3 for $150 or so as it's regular price which includes 2 free movies in the box (Bourne Ultimatum and 300) and 5 free mail in movies. At this point, Sony is pretty well fucked. There will be millions of cheap HD-DVD standalones in homes this Xmas season and Sony is still sitting on $399 as the entry level player for Blu-Ray with no way to lower prices without taking an even more massive loss on the hardware than they are.

Game, set, match.

Well played Toshiba.

[Tikker]

you're like the Diekan of the dvd players

[Tossica]

you're like the Diekan of the dvd players

Huh?

[Lyion]

I'd put my money on Blu-ray, personally. Warner Brothers is going exclusive Blu-Ray next year. Sony and other big studio's are already locked into Blu Ray. Most film people want Blu Rayto win. Pixar studios highly prefers Blu-Ray. Steven Spielberg has said his movies will not be on HD-DVD.

Universal has an 18 month deal for exclusivity with HD DVD, afterwards they'll go back to making Blu-Ray, as they did before. That cost Toshiba 250 million, just to enable them to compete. Next time Universal will want more. Not a good way to fight a format war.

Microsoft is helping the format war, because it's personal goal is to move everyone to digital delivery via PC and 360.

Cheaper Blu-ray DVD players will arrive by Christmas and with Pixar going solely Bluray, it's going to win the war of attrition in the long run.

Despite Toshiba and others throwing hundreds of millions of dollars to compete, Blu Ray will end up the format Champion. All these HD players will be worthless in a few years. The fanbois will continue to cheer for Toshiba throwing money to try and compete, but that isn't going to help in the long run when the majority of content will either be Blu Ray exclusive or on both.

There's a reason Toshiba is taking huge losses and practically giving away their player, after spending hundreds of millions tying up exclusivity rights with 2 studios just to be able to compete. The writing is pretty much on the wall, and HD DVD is on borrowed time.

Some good commentary here, at the 11/01/2007 post
http://www.thedigitalbits.com/#mytwocents

How in the world does Toshiba think it's ever going to make any money from the HD-DVD format? I mean, seriously.

You may have heard by now that Toshiba has made pre-Black Friday arrangements with Wal-Mart to effectively dump its HD-A2 HD-DVD player starting this Friday (this weekend only) for just $98.87. You may also have heard that Best Buy has followed suit. Supplies are limited, of course, and the offer is apparently not valid in some parts of the country that have state anti-dumping laws.

Wikipedia defines dumping as "the act of a manufacturer in one country exporting a product to another country at a price which is either below the price it charges in its home market or is below its costs of production." Toshiba's move isn't really anti-competitive, because there are no U.S. manufacturers making HD-DVD players. But it's that "below its costs of production" part that applies in this case. The HD-A2 arrived in the States with an original MSRP of $499.99. Now, Toshiba is letting it go for just $99. There's no way the player cost less than $100 to manufacturer. Just. No. Way.

You might wonder: How can Toshiba possibly have enough HD-A2s left to sell at just $99 at large, nationwide retailers? Simple. It's because they didn't sell originally, so plenty of stores still have them sitting on shelves, gathering dust. Toshiba is eager to clear them all out at this point, and Wal-Mart and Best Buy are happy to help.

Clearly, the HD-DVD camp understands that low price is really the only card they have left to play in this format war. Porn hasn't won the war for them as predicted, nor have online bells and whistles, or combo discs/players. The obvious question would be: Why in the world would any other hardware manufacturer want to join Toshiba's foolhardy strategy of driving player prices down to next to nothing? It's no accident that not a single other major manufacturer has released a stand-alone HD-DVD player (and no, the Venturer doesn't count). Given how dramatically Toshiba has slashed prices on HD-DVD players over the last year, you have to wonder how long they can keep losing money.

Forget for a moment that the HD-A2 isn't capable of delivering full 1080p video - that doesn't matter. Why? Because anyone who is so price sensitive that they wait until a high-def player price hits $99 to buy one isn't likely to have an HDTV set yet. Being super bargain shoppers, they aren't likely to want to pay $30 for an HD-DVD movie either. I'd bet many of the people who jump on this sale will either be using them primarily as upconverting DVD players, or they're already diehard HD-DVD supporters and are buying them as second players. For those regular consumers who take the bait, I wonder how they'll feel when they realize they can't play those big Disney titles in the "blu" boxes due next week.

Speaking of which... a couple weeks ago, when Disney and Sony launched the successful strategy of counter-selling their Blu-ray software titles 2 for 1 the same week Paramount and DreamWorks released Transformers on HD-DVD, we got a few e-mails from HD-DVD fans telling us how lame that was. Is it any accident that Toshiba didn't wait for Black Friday to sell their $99 players, instead carefully planning the 3-day sale for the weekend before Disney and Pixar release Cars, Ratatouille and the Pixar Short Films Collection on Blu-ray? Not a chance. So Toshiba is slashing HD-DVD hardware prices to counteract the release of blockbuster Blu-ray software. What does that tell you about the viability of HD-DVD going into a fourth quarter that, by all accounts, is make or break for the format? (Especially with Warner Home Video now hinting that they're looking at the fourth quarter to "reevaluate" their dual format support)

There's no doubt that thousands of eager consumers will get a deal on cheap hardware this weekend. But it still isn't going to be the format war winner for HD-DVD that some would like to believe. On the contrary, it means that Toshiba is getting desperate enough to adopt an all-or-nothing strategy... and is going even more deeply into the red with this format. Meanwhile, given the strength of their rhetoric this week, it's a safe bet that the Blu-ray camp will pull their gloves off too in the fourth quarter, and start getting more aggressive in the weeks and months ahead.

It boggles the mind to think that any reasonable person can still believe at this point that the HD-DVD format represents a viable long-term business. Even if Toshiba's strategy has the desired effect (which seems primarily to be garnering splashy headlines in the press), what do they ultimately win? A tie? The best case for HD-DVD, even if Warner were to be so impressed by this sale that they go HD exclusive, would be to effectively create a 50/50 split in terms of studio support. In other words, a total quagmire. High prices were the number one reason most surveyed consumers cited for staying away from high-def discs in the recent NPD Group survey, but the existence of two competing formats was not far behind. And just as many people who said that price was their chief concern also said that they're happy enough with current DVD to have no interest in upgrading to high-def discs anyway. So all this seems to be more a battle waged for the press and PR spin than the actual hearts and minds of consumers.

Keep in mind, contrary to the opinions of some online, we don't think HD-DVD is a bad format at all. If it were the only HD format around, we'd be all over it here at The Bits. But Toshiba is effectively paying studios to support it, and now they're practically giving the hardware and software away. Do you suppose we'll see free HD-DVD player offers in Cracker Jacks and cereal boxes next? $50 players? $25 players? 2 for 1 players?

Experienced fighter pilots will tell you that when you dive your aircraft at the deck, you very quickly run out of maneuvering room. It seems to me that the ground is coming up awfully fast for HD-DVD. Either way, it's looking more and more as if this fourth quarter could decide the format war... one way or another.

And to think... there was once a time when we all hoped that these two sides would work out their differences and create a single, unified high-def disc format. Those were the days, as they say.

[Zanchief]

Kids aren't the ones with Blu-Ray players. Disney isn't going to be the deathblow in the format wars.

The guy who wrote that article is just about as objective as Tossica on the subject.

He chastises Toshiba for it's underhanded maneuvering while praising Sony for it's clever marketing strategies. Hrmm something doesn't add up.

The only reason blu-ray is out selling HD right now, is because more people own a PS3 then people who own the X-Box addon.

If Toshiba is successful in flooding the market how is that now a huge bonus for them?

Your argument about film people preferring Blu-Ray is kind of silly. Those are the same people talking up Macs~

[Jay]

From a business standpoint I could see Sony dropping the price and taking a hit on Bluray hardware. They take a hit on every PS3 they sell and bank off of the titles, why not do the same for the movie titles?

[Tossica]

Lyion,

Your entire post came directly from your ass. The fact that you quoted Bill Hunts temper tantrum from the Digital Bits is hilarious. Did you actually read the editorial? It's complete bullshit. At least quote something worthwhile. I used to love that page too back when DVD was still new.

Warner Bros WAS HD-DVD exclusive at the beginning and come Jan 2008 will be HD exclusive again. Universal is now and has always been HD-DVD exclusive. Paramount just went exclusive. You think all the other studios are just going to sit there and watch while millions of people start buying HD-DVD players and content?

$150 million was money well spent on Paramount IMO. How many hundreds of millions do you think Sony has spent on studio subsidies, Target endcaps, paying EVERY Best Buy, Circuit City, etc to display and push Blu-Ray and what has it gotten them? Jack shit. Noone is buying their movies. The attach rate and software sales have been pathetic all year for both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD. Toshiba has sat quietly and allowed Sony to blow their load. Now Toshiba has delivered a massive one two combination that IMO has pretty much put Sony down for the count.

Sony CAN'T slash hardware prices because there are far too many hardware manufacturers involved. You think Pioneer, Samsung, etc would be just as willing to take hits on the hardware as Sony would? You think they would be happy if Sony decided to create a $99 player basically guaranteeing that NOONE would purchase their machines?

At this point, Toshiba doesn't even give a shit what Sony does because their battle is not with Blu-Ray. Their goal is to replace DVD completely and with $99 and $150 players flooding the market, they are doing a damn good job. Once the Chinese players hit the market in 2008, expect off brand $49 players. They may be taking a loss on the hardware but that is debatable as well as other reports I have read say even at $99, Toshiba makes a meager profit and Walmart makes $49. They are on their 3rd gen players now and when you open up the box, there really isn't much to them. The manufacturing costs are small at this point. Considering the amount of money to be made in the long run, taking a small hit on the hardware side is a smart business decision and one that Sony doesn't have the luxury of making.

Price point ALWAYS wins. And once the consumers have made their decision, all of the movie houses will follow the money and release on the format that has the widest market penetration.

PS. Fuck Disney. They were DIVX exclusive during the last "format war" if anyone remembers that far back. It didn't take them long to eat crow and start releasing DVD's.

[Lyion]

Basic economics disagrees with your premises. The simple fact is that even after huge losses and subsidies, Toshiba had to slash their HD players to the brink to try and compete. Even if they sell a million HD players, they'll still be behind Blu-Ray. After Christmas when the more popular Blu-Ray titles come, and with the slashed PS3 prices that gap will hugely widen. My guess is by January Blu Ray will have a 5 to 1 lead in players to HD

You are wrong about both Universal and WB. Anyone reading AV sites knows the truth. Heck, check Google News. Maybe Toshiba can write another 250 million check to try and keep them in the format war for another year.

http://news.google.com/news?q=Warner+Br ... a=N&tab=wn

Your opinion about Sony not being able to slash prices because other manufacturers create Blu Ray players should tell you something, but your tunnel vision ignores the simple fact that is a good thing for Sony. Nobody wants to make an HD DVD player except Toshiba for a reason. With the price point being 99 bucks and no profit in site, who the hell would?

There is price point penetration, and then there is bleeding money out of desperation due to losing. Toshiba is in the latter category and is trying hard not to get buried.

You also ignore the fact Blu-Ray is the superior technology. Hitachi has a 100 Gig format disc that solely requires a firmware upgrade to existing players, including PS3s. That's fairly close to being out the door. HD has a 51 Gig disc, but it is YEARS from being ready.

[Tossica]

Lyion

Seriously, you don't know what the fuck you are talking about. Universal is and ALWAYS has been HD-DVD exclusive. A slightly different google search brings back much different results on the WB issue. WB exclusivity is all speculation at this point but the fact that they were exclusive to HD-DVD to begin with and have stated publicly that they are watching what Toshiba does in hardware sales in the 4th quarter to make their decision leads me to believe they will ditch Blu-Ray.

http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=Wa ... gle+Search

Toshiba is not slashing prices in "desperation". The sub $200 price point has been their plan all along.

The average consumer doesn't give a shit about bitrate, capacity, etc., they want inexpensive and the advantages that Blu-Ray offers are NOT worth the extra $300. Picture and sound quality are identical in most cases. Pioneer and all the other CE's signed on with Blu-Ray because they were promised large margins in hardware sales. I can't find the numbers right now but a total of like 50K Blu-Ray stand alones have been sold combined between all the manufacturers. I'm sure they are all thrilled with that...

The ONLY Blu-Ray player people are buying is the PS3 and over half of the people buying them don't even know that it plays HD movies or don't care. With nearly 10 times the amount of players in the market, Blu-Ray has barely held a 2-1 lead in sales since inception. After this holiday season when millions of new HD-DVD owners are buying films, the ratio is going to flip flop and Blu-Ray will be left in the dust.

Even the most diehard Blu-Ray fanboys are starting to crack at this point. Sony has claimed over and over again that they've already won the war when Toshiba hadn't even started fighting yet.

At $99, I can understand why many Blu-Ray supporters are now going format neutral.

Oh, and the comment about the 100GB Blu-Ray disc that only needs a firmware update is laughable. It's a completely different format is even more of a prototype than the TL51 and is years away. Sony can't even manufacture 50GB disks properly which is why almost all Blu-Ray movies have been released on the 25GB format. Hell, every Blu-Ray player sold up to this date besides the PS3 is still unfinished spec and is now obsolete as of Oct 31st.

Sony has been bullshitting the public for the last 2 years and now the gig is up. Their spec isn't finished, the picture and sound quality is nearly identical between the two formats and HD-DVD is thrashing them in interactive content and special features. They've been trying to rip the public off with $1000 players and overhyped $600 consoles and now they are pretty well fucked. Noone is going to buy a $400 media player when they can get one for $100.

[Lyion]

It's the last refuge of the uninformed zealout when someone makes a rationale and intelligent post and the whole basis for refutation is 'You don't know what you are talking about'. Bollocks. You are just a fanbois who has been cheering for HD despite it losing for months, as everyone here can see.

You are talking about the average consumer. Honestly, they aren't moving to HD yet. The ones who do want HD are not worried about the price difference of 200 dollars if they spent 3 grand on a 1080p 60" loaded HD TV. If they did they wouldn't buy a shit 99 dollar HD player. The ones buying this player are probably going to use it for upconverting on their cheap ass little TVs that can't tell the difference between HD and regular DVD. Sony equally does not have high demand for Blu-ray, but they continue to move PS3s which seem to be more Blu-ray player than game console as of today.

Perhaps Toshiba's plan is to lose hundreds of millions of dollars, but does that strike you as good business sense? After all that, the BEST they can hope for is to break even right now. It's a bold and aggressive move, and I think wise, but it most certainly is not going to win the HD format wars.

Common sense says they slashed their prices this weekend, pre Black Friday because they know with Blu-ray's upcoming exclusive movies, the PS3 price cuts, and the Blu-ray player cuts they need to get ahead of the curve in a game where they are getting their asses kicked.

MS and company can continue to spread FUD that silly people who don't comprehend the real tech and film studio differences buy, while spending hundreds of millions locking up short term studio exclusives, but all Blu-ray has to do is stay on course and again this Christmas the BR to HD gap will be 5 to 1, despite a few hundred thousand players Toshiba sold at a huge loss..

So to recap for you, Most Studio's support Blu-Ray. Blu Ray discs support more than twice the data. Many movies that require 2 HD-DVDs only require 1 Blu-ray. Also, the Blu-ray player price cuts will be coming up, and they will move this Christmas. They'll be done in a smart manner, not a mad dash sale to try and stay afloat.

The Toshiba deal was most certainly done out of desperation. An MSRP 300 dollar player that no other manufacturer will touch is not dropped in price by 1/3 without it. You can spin it as they are going to crush Blu-ray, but the real deal is they are spending and spending to try to keep the war going and not get buried by Blu-ray. You don't hold a fire sale unless your product isn't moving, or unless you are getting beat. Don't kid yourself, If there was any sort of demand, Toshiba would not be doing this.

[Tossica]

I said you don't know what you are talking about because you don't.

"Universal has an 18 month deal for exclusivity with HD DVD, afterwards they'll go back to making Blu-Ray, as they did before. That cost Toshiba 250 million, just to enable them to compete. Next time Universal will want more. Not a good way to fight a format war."

Total bullshit.


"Cheaper Blu-ray DVD players will arrive by Christmas and with Pixar going solely Bluray, it's going to win the war of attrition in the long run."

Sony's response to the Toshiba deal was to cut their prices by 20%. /yawn


"You are wrong about both Universal and WB. Anyone reading AV sites knows the truth. Heck, check Google News. Maybe Toshiba can write another 250 million check to try and keep them in the format war for another year."

Again, this is total bullshit. Universal helped develop HD-DVD and have ALWAYS been exclusive. I'll wager on WB exclusivity next year if you are that confident.

"You also ignore the fact Blu-Ray is the superior technology. Hitachi has a 100 Gig format disc that solely requires a firmware upgrade to existing players, including PS3s. That's fairly close to being out the door. HD has a 51 Gig disc, but it is YEARS from being ready."

Again, complete and total bullshit. Sorry for calling ya out buddy but you seriously don't know what the fuck you are talking about. I appreciate having someone to debate with on this but you are out of your league.

[Tossica]

You are talking about the average consumer. Honestly, they aren't moving to HD yet. The ones who do want HD are not worried about the price difference of 200 dollars if they spent 3 grand on a 1080p 60" loaded HD TV. If they did they wouldn't buy a shit 99 dollar HD player. The ones buying this player are probably going to use it for upconverting on their cheap ass little TVs that can't tell the difference between HD and regular DVD. Sony equally does not have high demand for Blu-ray, but they continue to move PS3s which seem to be more Blu-ray player than game console as of today.

I put this $99 player in my home theater and I don't have a "cheap ass little TV". It's a great price on a great player and anyone saying differently is fooling themselves. Fact.

[Lyion]

My bad, Paramount has the 18 month deal that was for 250 million, not Universal.

That said, let's get back to your tech arguments, which are wrong.

You can find this same information on any AV Forum or reputable news site. The tech is real and you trying to insinuate there is little difference between HD and Blu-ray is not accurate at all.

The four-layer Blu-ray disc utilizes a standard Blu-ray drive optical head, which has been enhanced to read and write data across the four 25GB layers.

the existing Blu-ray drives will only need a firmware upgrade to be compatible with the latest 100GB disc. Earlier, many companies have come up with 100GB multi-layer discs. However, they used a specially developed optical head to read the disc.

The company said that they are currently working on modifying the signal quality of its quad-layer technology before releasing commercially. In addition, Hitachi is also planning to develop an eight-layer Blu-ray Disc that would be capable of holding 200GB data.

Again, this is total bullshit. Universal helped develop HD-DVD and have ALWAYS been exclusive. I'll wager on WB exclusivity next year if you are that confident.

{{edit Universal solely releases HD here, but Bluray overseas}} I still think they release Blu-ray in other regions. That's hardly HD DVD exclusive. For a company so sure of HD, it's funny they have these for sale overseas

Again, I think this 99 dollar deal is wise and a good idea. I think it will help Toshiba stay in the game. The problem here is tech wise HD is far behind Blu-ray, which you can't even argue given the 1080i max and far, far smaller disks. Player wise they are still going to be behind after Christmas, which is a FACT Plus, Studio wise it's still currently two to one for Blu-ray.

The WB stuff is speculation, but I'll wager if they go exclusive it'll be Blu-ray. Toshiba might pony up some huge dinero for them to go HD, but I doubt they have it left after bleeding all year and even more right now.

Also, after the last generation HD DVD players that were sitting on the shelves for years are cleared out, there won't be any more 99 dollar ones unless they lower their other models. Expect a blitz of various manufacturers selling Bluray players this Christmas. Vastly technically superior Bluray players, at that.

I get the feeling you've not personally compared the two players. I have. The Blu-ray is the better player. Then again, you seem to have stock in MS based on your postings here, so I wonder if this thread is more to help your retirement than discuss player differences.

[Tossica]

You do realize that more Blu-Ray exclusives are available in HD-DVD in other countries right? And you also realize that HD-DVD is NOT region coded so I can actually play those imported discs in my HD-DVD player right? Good luck playing an overseas Blu-Ray disc in your player. Let me know how that works out for ya.

Yep, you were wrong about the exculisivity contract, you are wrong about Universal ever producing Blu-Ray stateside. You are wrong about HD-DVD not being 1080P. The HD-A2 outputs at 1080i which on a decent 1080P TV is indistinguishable from 1080i since the TV does it's own deinterlacing. You either have it done in the player or your TV does it for you. There is NO difference in picture quality unless you have a horseshit deinterlacer in your fancy 1080P TV. Toshiba has several 1080P players so you are wrong again.

Sony has sold more PS3's but it's proven most people are not watching Blu-Ray movies on their PS3 because they've barely managed a 2-1 software lead even though they claim there are 10x as many PS3's sold than stand alone and 360 add on HD drives. Toshiba sold more standalone HD-DVD players yesterday than Blu-Ray has managed to sell since it was released. People watch movies on stand alone players.

[Tossica]

PS

The gen 3 HD-DVD players are even cheaper to make so expect sub $200 prices to stay for good.

[Tossica]

PSS

I don't know where you are getting info but it's mostly bullshit. $250 million deal? WTF are you talking about, seriously. Oh, you were wrong again? Yeah, I think you can still safely back out of the debate if you want. I won't hold it against ya.

[Tossica]

PSSSSSS

You should probably check your facts on profits as well. Toshiba announced a profit this year while Sony announced they lost over $850 million. Harsh... who's the one bleeding?

[Tossica]

PSSSSSSSSS

Blu-Ray is a gay name.

[Zanchief]

I get the feeling you've not personally compared the two players. I have. The Blu-ray is the better player. Then again, you seem to have stock in MS based on your postings here, so I wonder if this thread is more to help your retirement than discuss player differences.

Beta and Laserdisc were superior products.

[Lyion]

Good point. Betamax lost due to content. That's what the average joe will buy based on. If you walk into any store today the Blu-ray area has more and superior content for sale. That will only extend based on this holiday Blu-ray vs HD DVD selection.

I do agree that Blu-ray is a gay name. Maybe it'll change when it wins the format wars. Blu-ray has also sold a lot more DVDS, however you've kept saying that doesn't mean anything.

Sony is bleeding?

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/10/25/busin ... f=business

[Lyion]

p.p.p.p.p.p.p.p.s. fuckin' fanbois~

[Lyion]

p.p.p.p.p.p.p.p.p.s. A coupon for you!

[Tossica]

"TOKYO, Oct 27 (Reuters) - Sony Corp (6758.T: Quote, Profile, Research) said the operating margin at its electronics operations is expected to beat its target for the year to March, but operating loss at its videogame unit will likely be double its initial forecast. Operating loss at its game unit, which offers loss-making PlayStation 3 game gear, is estimated to exceed 100 billion yen ($876 million) for the current business year, compared with its original projection of 50 billion yen, a Sony spokeswoman said."

Ouch. Good thing they sold off a few $$$ billion worth of stuff in different divisions to keep in the black.