2016 elections.

[brinstar]

2/2, groundhog day, morning after iowa

well well well

huckster is gone, good riddance. christie, santorum, fiorina, gilmore and kasich are statistically invisible. jeb!, rand, and even carson are blips on the screen. the big news is that a) cruz's strong ground game pushed him past trump and that b) rubio looks serious for once. the punditverse is swimming with chatter - some say that's what trump gets for snubbing the last debate, others say this proves trump was never that threatening in the first place. the most sensible response i've seen says that the result is indicative of trump having almost no fundraising and a very absent ground game, versus crubio busting their asses 24/7. this is the wakeup call the party needed though i think - trump is going to have to decide if he still thinks he can win by making almost no effort (or if he even cares anymore), rubio is going to figure out a way to translate his strong finish into some serious momentum if he wants to catch cruz, and the underclowns are going to have to decide how much of their donors' money they want to keep wasting.

on the other side, a mere 0.2% separated bernie and hillary. in IA dem caucus rules, a tie is decided by a coin toss, and hillary won six such contests - plus who knows how o'malley's 0.5% might've redistributed if he'd dropped out BEFORE the caucus opened. so yeah hillary technically wins because she came out on top by a hair, but it's dumb to say bernie lost considering he came into this show with half the money and infrastructure she has and a quarter the name recognition. bernie is gonna slay in NH, but i fear he will run into a wall when he gets to super tuesday

i watched all the speeches at the end of the night, here are my observations:

1. rubio looked pretty jazzed, but it amazes me how most of these GOP candidates sound more like they're running against barack obama than they are against hillary or bernie or each other. honestly of all the clowns he's the one i'm most afraid of - he's young, he's fairly charismatic, he's moderate on a couple of issues, and he could sway a big chunk of the latino vote. lol'd at his slip-ups though, like when he said "thanks to the people of new hampshire tonight" haha

2. cruz is a fucking creep. he sounds like a villain speaking to his henchman, threatening destruction and annihilation of his enemies. what bugged me the most is that a lot of his rhetoric seems to be predicated on destroying ideas - which isn't really possible. you can't destroy ISIS, because ISIS is an idea. you can only destroy its members and hope there aren't enough members left to continue spreading the idea. likewise when he said he would drive liberal ideology "into the potomac and out to sea" or something like that. what the fuck? 8 years of RWR didn't destroy liberal ideology, 4 years of GHWB didn't destroy liberal ideology, and 8 years of GWB didn't destroy liberal ideology. this liberal ideology you think is some heinous beast to be drowned at sea with spears and torches just elected your antichrist TWICE, and yet you think you'll drive a stake into its heart with your presidency? that's either planet-sized hubris or an incredibly disturbing threat. also, do you notice how this paragraph is super long? that's because he talked for a fucking century. goddamn he loves to hear himself spew. he's probably still going, in fact. let's cut to trump.

3. uhhhh... hmmm. what is this person i see on stage? he actually seemed genuine for once, even... dare i say... human? showing respect and grace in taking second? didn't jaw on and on, or mug for the cameras? so weird. oh, the crack at the end about maybe buying a farm. there you are, now you seem familiar. nice (for once), short, and a quip at the end.

oh cruz is still going lmao

4. hillary was fired up! she had that adrenaline dump of a heavily-favored prep-school basketball team who only barely squeaked out a 2-point win in the final seconds over a bunch of yokels from outstate mooseknuckle high, and it was reinforced by the knowledge that only a seriously lucky streak of coin tosses separated her from 2nd place. she kept shouting her credentials as though she realized she almost didn't convince enough people, and kept pointing out that she's a progressive even though bernie is far out-progressive-ing her. bill looked drunk.

5. say what you want about the final tally, but nobody's crowd was as fired up as bernie's. they almost wouldn't let him talk at times they were so loud - and they chimed in to help finish some of his sentences. i got chills. he still faces an uphill battle, of course, but for fuck's sake maybe the media will stop ignoring him now

cruz is still going

finally a quick word about demographics

-people under age 45 overwhelmingly supported bernie, including a 90-10 split amongst millennials.
-on the "trustworthiness" poll question, bernie destroyed hillary 85-15
-on the "necessary experience" poll question, hillary came out on top 80-20
-97% of republican caucusgoers were white



aaaaand cruz is still going

[Jay]

The possible fate of a nation rests on RNG. Wow. I make less important decisions daily that are too important to surrender it to a coin toss. Fucking unreal.

[Harrison]

Rampant fraud being ignored.

Statistically "impossible" coin toss successive wins across 6 throws? Counts being this close in 6 places to begin with? (after aforementioned voter fraud, miscounts, etc.)

This is a huge win for Bernie in my eyes.

[Jay]

Isn't 6 winning coin tosses a 1/64 chance? It's unlikely but I dunno if it's impossible.

[brinstar]

rand paul ducked out today, and much like huntsman in '12 thus vanisheth the last vestige of sanity from the circus

[brinstar]

3. uhhhh... hmmm. what is this person i see on stage? he actually seemed genuine for once, even... dare i say... human? showing respect and grace in taking second? didn't jaw on and on, or mug for the cameras? so weird. oh, the crack at the end about maybe buying a farm. there you are, now you seem familiar. nice (for once), short, and a quip at the end.

yeah nevermind

guess it just took a day or two to set in that he'd actually lost, because now he's kicking and screaming like a big dumb baby and accusing cruz of cheating

like hey dumbass what did you expect when you skipped debates and put in next to no effort and failed to pander shamelessly to evangelicals

[Lyion]

Cruz did some underhanded funky shit. However, there's no 'cheating' in politics. Just winners, losers, and lawsuits.

[brinstar]

ya, looks like his campaign sent out an email strongly implying sleepy ben was gonna drop out, and a chunk of carson folks then defected to cruz

IA caucus rules are pretty crazy though, i mean local campaign leaders can just straight up walk in with plates full of cookies for anyone willing to come to their candidate's corner

shady as heck but not necessarily illegal i'm afraid ;\

[leah]

3. uhhhh... hmmm. what is this person i see on stage? he actually seemed genuine for once, even... dare i say... human? showing respect and grace in taking second? didn't jaw on and on, or mug for the cameras? so weird. oh, the crack at the end about maybe buying a farm. there you are, now you seem familiar. nice (for once), short, and a quip at the end.

yeah nevermind

guess it just took a day or two to set in that he'd actually lost, because now he's kicking and screaming like a big dumb baby and accusing cruz of cheating

like hey dumbass what did you expect when you skipped debates and put in next to no effort and failed to pander shamelessly to evangelicals

someone on the radio today said he's throwing a "trumper tantrum" lol lol lol

[Harrison]

Sanders leading Clinton 60-30 in the NH Primary right now.

If that doesn't give you goosebumps and hope for humanity...

[Arlos]

Much as I like Bernie, I wouldn't read too much into him winning NH. He's extremely popular in Vermont, so he has a huge home field advantage. Also, the demographics favor him compared to how many of, say, the southern states will be. So yeah, it was certainly great he won, but much as I WANT him to be president, I'm still not going to agree he has a huge shot at it until I see him start winning states like Florida, Mississippi, etc. Until I see him winning more conservative and more racially diverse states where he doesn't live right next door, I still think Hillary is the most likely nominee. Much as I'm not a fan, I'll still vote for her, as she would be vastly superior to any of the clowns on the GOP. I mean, if it comes down to voting for Hillary or voting for Cruz/Trump, I sure as hell know which one I'll vote for.

I'm actually worried about 2 possible developments out of the whole Democrat primary process:

1) The rhetoric going back and forth right now could damage the potential nominee in the minds of voters, no matter which side wins it. If the end result is that half the party stays home on election day, that could hand the election to the GOP.

2) Bloomberg entering the race. Kind of like the inverse Ross Perot, Bloomberg would pull most of his support from people who'd otherwise vote for the Democrat candidate. Splitting this voting block could drain enough support from the Democrat nominee to allow the GOP candidate to win, where they'd lose without Bloomberg being in the race.

[Harrison]

I will vote for Clinton over nearly any Retardlican nominee.

I will need several showers after, and a lot of hugs, but it has to be done.

[Jay]

I will vote for Clinton over nearly any Retardlican nominee.

I will need several showers after, and a lot of hugs, but it has to be done.

She is JUST as bad. If it goes Republican vs Clinton, I won't vote at all. Bernie or bust.

[brinstar]

nebraska is so deep red my general election vote won't matter, therefore:

-if bernie gets the nom, i will cast my first-ever vote for a D presidential candidate

-if hillary gets the nom, i will once again write in the silver fox, Jill Stein

that's for the general though - i am in overdrive mode for the NE caucus on march 5th. gonna go to a caucus training tonight, gonna write a shitload of letters to superdelegates and other party officials, gonna get as many people as i can to show up for the caucus and stand for bernie. shit one of my bands is even playing a bernie benefit show next sunday (leah pls come)

[leah]

nebraska is so deep red my general election vote won't matter, therefore:

-if bernie gets the nom, i will cast my first-ever vote for a D presidential candidate

-if hillary gets the nom, i will once again write in the silver fox, Jill Stein

that's for the general though - i am in overdrive mode for the NE caucus on march 5th. gonna go to a caucus training tonight, gonna write a shitload of letters to superdelegates and other party officials, gonna get as many people as i can to show up for the caucus and stand for bernie. shit one of my bands is even playing a bernie benefit show next sunday (leah pls come)

whar?

i will be caucusing too also as well.

[brinstar]

vega, 6pm on 2/21, no cover

rest of ya'll are invited too lol

[Drem]

starting to see people convert to Hillary on my feed now :/

[brinstar]

really? i'm seeing more and more people lean bernie as he (finally) gets more visibility

there are definitely hillary people in my fb feed but certainly no new converts

[10sun]

There will be a grand jury indictment for Hillary within 6 months.

[Lyion]

It'll never happen. The Justice Department will bend over backwards to ensure this, as they are in her party and it's in their best interests to ensure this. The only hope for it would be from a special prosecutor and there's absolutely no gain to be had from that for the Dems so they certainly won't do it.

In order for her to be indicted, it'd have to go through Justice which is run by Democrats very loyal to Obama <and Clinton>. It's a huge flaw in our government system that the Executive Branch is pretty much shielded from prosecution.

Bernie's guys should be running this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FECIYlo3KRY

[brinstar]

It'll never happen. The Justice Department will bend over backwards to ensure this, as they are in her party and it's in their best interests to ensure this. The only hope for it would be from a special prosecutor and there's absolutely no gain to be had from that for the Dems so they certainly won't do it.

In order for her to be indicted, it'd have to go through Justice which is run by Democrats very loyal to Obama <and Clinton>. It's a huge flaw in our government system that the Executive Branch is pretty much shielded from prosecution.

Bernie's guys should be running this...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FECIYlo3KRY

was gonna quote to say i agreed, but how did the quote text include another sentence and a youtube link? stealth edit? what fuckery is this

[brinstar]

also bernie wouldn't run that shit. it's a clever idea i guess but it's also pretty trashy and the lyrics repeat a bunch of unsubstantiated claims. not his style

(also p sure whoever made that video is getting hit with a lawsuit by the geto boys)

[Lyion]

I just liked the comedy aspect, but really how many millennials would get the Office Space reference? Bernie seems to be getting better at hitting Clinton. Politics ARE trashy unsubstantiated claims. If you want to see him win the nomination, he needs to up his game. He's a career Washington Pol. He definitely knows how to attack and smear.

I hate double posting. Sorry there.

[Drem]

but really how many millennials would get the Office Space reference?.

Since we were all teenagers or young 20s when it came out, I'm going to say probably all of us

[Lyion]

most researchers and commentators use birth years ranging from the early 1980s to the early 2000s.

My guess is a large majority of these people probably didn't see Office Space which was somewhat of a box office flop, and no Netflix or Amazon Prime back then. If you were the median age of 10 in 1999 then you probably didn't see this movie.